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Post by MarkInTexas on Dec 29, 2017 14:40:28 GMT -5
Despite a surprisngly vocal backlash, The Last Jedi remained the first movie at the box office, grossing $71.6 million from Friday through Sunday. That does represent a steep drop from its opening weekend, particularly considering the other three film to open north of $200 million (The Avengers, Jurassic World, Star Wars: The Force Awakens) all finished over $100 million for weekend #2. Indeed, The Last Jedi, after the 2nd biggest opening of all time, ended up having only the 13th best 2nd weekend. Part of that downturn can be attributed to Sunday being Christmas Eve, traditionally a slow day at the box office, but even if Jedi's Sunday gross had been more in line with Friday's, it still would have fallen well short of $100 million, and probably short of $80 million.
Then again, Hollywood's odd decision to essentially take the first two weekends of December off in favor of a glut of Christmas week releases means that even Star Wars is seeing its grosses cannibalized. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, the latest decades-later sequel, did solid, but not spectacular business for 2nd, taking in $36.4 million, after taking in $16 million on Wednesday and Thursday. If the grosses are any indication, this will indeed be the final installment of Pitch Perfect, as PP3 opened to just under $20 million. The Greatest Showman didn't have the greatest box office weekend, taking in only $8.8 million. Farther down the chart, Downsizing showed how much Matt Damon's star power has shrunk this year, opening to just under $5 million. The much-delayed Father Figures, despite a strong cast, managed to open to only $3.3 million. That's the 6th-worst opening of any movie debuting on at least 2500 screens.
The good news for films out during this time is that the week between Christmas and New Year's is very lucrative, so since Monday, Star Wars has taken in another $77 million, Jumanji another $51 million, Pitch Perfect another $20 million. It's not going to keep underachievers from underachieving, but it will allow them to not underachieve as much.
The one major Christmas Day opening, All the Money in the World, has earned only a small fraction of that money, picking up $5.8 million in its first three days.
In terms of limited release, The Post opened very strongly, as a timely drama starring Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep and directed by Steven Spielberg should. Despite playing on only 9 screens, it has already topped $1 million at the box office. Phantom Thread, which opened Christmas Day, has also performed well this week. Molly's Game, which opened on over 200 screens, is doing all right, but is probably not going to be a blockbuster. Neither is Hostiles, which, despite playing on a similar number of screens, and having a three-day jump on Phantom Thread, has only earned about 1/6th the amount.
This week should be more of the same, as there will be no wide releases (this is normal--the last time a film opened wide the week after Christmas was the horror movie Ghost in the Machine, way back in 1993). Next week, the first 2018 film to get a wide release, Insidous: The Last Key, opens on the first Friday of the year. This will be the 8th straight year that the sole new wide release on the first non-New Year's Day Friday that's not a previous year holdover will be a horror film. And there's a pretty good chance it could take down Last Jedi. But we'll know more next weekend. Until then, Happy New Year, and thanks for reading my write-ups in 2017.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Jan 5, 2018 2:38:50 GMT -5
If it was literally any other movie, The Last Jedi would be considered to be a phenomenal success. On New Year's Eve, it passed Beauty and the Beast to become both the highest-grossing film released in 2017 and the highest-grossing film of the calendar year 2017. It has passed Rogue One, last year's highest-grosser, and currently sits in sixth on the all-time domestic list. It has passed a billion dollars worldwide.
Alas, The Last Jedi isn't any other movie. It is Star Wars Episode VIII, which means being phenomenally successful just isn't enough. While no one in their right mind would call it a flop, the fact that it will come up short of not just The Force Awakens, but also Avatar, and quite possibly Titanic and Jurassic World will cause a lot of people to label it a disappointment. That it will, worst case scenario, end up as "only" the fifth highest grossing movie in North America of all time shows how much being a Star Wars can skewer perception, but skewer it it does.
The mixed word-of-mouth that Jedi is getting is undoubtedly contributing to its downward slope. With this weekend replacing light moviegoing day Christmas Eve with the much more vigorous New Year's Eve, 6 of the 9 holdovers in the box office top ten saw their grosses rise from the previous weekend. The exceptions: the poorly received Downsizing, the unnecessary Pitch Perfect 3, and The Last Jedi, which did win the weekend, but only by $2.5 million over the surging Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle.
Jumanji opened relatively light, but is well on its way to being the 3rd biggest movie of the holidays, and has an outside shot at passing Thor: Ragnarok to be the second biggest. As of this writing, it's at $202 million, and while grosses will slow down now that the holidays are over, it should end up in the neighborhood of $300 million.
With no new wide releases this weekend, the Top 6 remained the same. The one wide Christmas Day opening, All the Money in the World, did marginal business for 7th. On the limited, Oscar race front, Phantom Thread continued to do strong business, and Molly's Game and Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool made decent money. The Post, which goes wide next weekend, had the best per-screen of all films in release.
This weekend has only one wide release, which is, as it has become customary, a horror film. Specifically, Insidious: The Last Key. After the disappointing performance of Insidious 3 in 2015, it will be interesting to see if the franchise still has much juice left in it. Expect it and Jumanji to finish 1st and 2nd in some order. The Last Jedi will have to settle for 3rd.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Jan 11, 2018 11:31:01 GMT -5
2017 was the year of the Jedi. So far, 2018 looks to be the year of Jumanji.
On New Year's Eve, Star Wars: The Last Jedi spent its 17th straight day atop the North American box office. On New Year's Day, the top film was Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle. And with one exception, it's been Jumanji ever since.
Jumanji has emerged as a bonafide word-of-mouth hit after a somewhat soft opening, which is a bit of a surprise given that it's an expensive sequel starring one of the world's biggest movie stars. But that's what's going on, as weekend #3 actually outgrossed weekend #1. One can quibble that the Sunday of Jumanji's opening weekend was Christmas Eve, and that by opening on Wednesday, it diluted its opening, and that people were waiting until Christmas Day or later to catch it. But still...weekend #3, a non-holiday weekend, beat weekend #1.
The same phenomenon is affecting another word-of-mouth hit, The Greatest Showman, which was looking like the greatest flop after opening to only $8.8 million that weekend and to only $13.4 in its first five days. But word of mouth kicked in, and this weekend, Showman took in $13.7 million, or more than it took it from December 20th through Christmas Eve. Showman will almost certainly end up outgrossing Pitch Perfect 3, something I never would have imagined after that first week.
Opening in second (and interrupting Jumanji's daily win streak on Friday) was Insidious: The Last Key, another successful horror launch on the first weekend of the year. It's $29.5 million opening nicely improved on the June 2015 opening of Insidious 3, not to mention a substantial improvement over 2017's opening horror movie, Underworld: Blood Wars*. Like most horror movies, Insidious will likely fade fast, but it should be in good position to outgross all but the second entry in the series by the end of its run. Given how cheap these movies are, look for Insidious 5 sometime in 2020.
As pretty much everyone who wants to see The Last Jedi has now seen The Last Jedi, Star Wars falls to third after three weeks on top. $23.7 million is a solid gross for the fourth weekend (14th-highest 4th weekend of all time), but it looks increasingly likely that it won't make it far past $600 million. Jedi's box-office run is nothing short of remarkable, but I suspect there will always be the faint whiff of disappointment surrounding it.
Molly's Game, which desperately wants in on the Oscar conversation, and Darkest Hour, which wants in for other categories besides than Gary Oldman's Winston Churchill, both went wide this weekend (though still playing on considerably fewer screens than much of the rest of the movies out there) to mixed results. Game grossed $6.8 million and Hour grossed $6 million. Not awful, but not exactly blockbuster territory. With his Golden Globe win, Oldman's Oscar nomination is all but assured (and is probably the front-runner at this point). Against such a competitive category, Molly's Jessica Chastain has a considerably steeper climb. A nomination for her is certainly not out of the question, but a better opening would have made her making the field more likely.
This weekend sees the wide release of another major Oscar contender in The Post, Liam Neeson attempting to get his action movie mojo back as The Commuter, Taraji P. Henson trying to prove she's a legitimate movie star playing a hitwoman who, unlike Neeson's Commuter, does possess a particular set of skills, in Proud Mary, and the further heartwarming adventures of Paddington Bear in Paddington 2. It's a hard lineup to predict, and all four movies have the possibility of becoming a big hit or bombing. We'll know which ones moviegoers flocked to--or they ignored them all in favor of more Jumanji--this weekend.
*Yes, I realize that the Underworld series is mostly Matrix-like action and Kate Beckinsale in skintight leather, but they're all about vampires vs. werewolves, so I classify it as horror.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Jan 18, 2018 14:49:39 GMT -5
Jumanji: Welcome to the Gold Mine continued its dominance of January, taking in $28.1 million for the Friday-through-Sunday portion of the weekend, and $35.2 million for the four-day. That runs its total up to $291.3 million. At this point, it seems all but inevitable that Jumanji will pass Thor: Ragnarok, It, and Spider-Man: Homecoming to become the second-highest-grossing movie released during the second half of 2017. If it follows a similar trajectory to last year's family-friendly-film-released-the-Wednesday-before-Christmas, Sing, however, it will finish short of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2's $390 million. Still, Jumanji's legs have been very impressive so far, so it's probably too early to write off its chances of passing Guardians or even Wonder Woman.
Going wide and finishing in 2nd is Steven Spielberg's Oscar contender The Post, which took in $23 million over the four-day. That's a solid opening, but it's continued performance will likely have a lot to do with Oscar nominations. The Post has strong shots at Best Picture and Best Actress, and slimmer shots at Best Actor and Best Director. if it gets a lot of nominations on Tuesday, it has a good shot at $100 million domestic. If not, it seems more likely to finish around the $72 million Bridge of Spies made in 2015.
The Greatest Showman continued its surprisingly strong run with another $16.2 million over the 4-day. For a film that looked like it would be lucky to make $40 million after its opening weekend, it's now past $100 million. The Commuter, the latest action movie starring Liam Neeson, did OK with $15.7 million, which puts it a tad ahead of Paddington 2, which opened to $15 million. That has to be seen as a bit of a disappointment, as the first Paddington opened to $25 million three years ago, and Part 2 got across-the-board raves. The good news is that the North American release is pretty much gravy, as P2 has already grossed over $125 million overseas. Expect Paddington 3 for MLK weekend 2021.
Farther down the chart, Proud Mary, also had a so-so opening, though the hitwoman thriller was reasonably low-budget. Star Wars: The Last Jedi is still short of $600 million, and at this point, it might be a stretch for it to get to The Avengers's $623.3 million. Insidious: The Last Key held up decently for a horror movie, but will likely fade fast from here on out.
This weekend sees the release of 12 Strong, which is 2018's entry in the nearly annual tradition of releasing a military movie based on relatively recent events in January (Zero Dark Thirty, Lone Survivor, American Sniper, 13 Hours). These movies tend to do decent-to-blockbuster business, and with Chris Hemsworth in the lead, expect this to strongarm Jumanji off the top of the box office ladder. Also opening is Den of Thieves, a generic-looking Gerard Butler thriller that looks like a typical January movie, and Forever My Girl, the rare PG-rated film that's not aimed at kids, but at fans of Nicolas Sparks, though this is not based on one of his novels.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Jan 25, 2018 18:22:39 GMT -5
The last time a movie was #1 on its fifth weekend of wide release was The Martian, over Halloween weekend 2015. The feat happened again this weekend as Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle continued its January dominance by taking in another $19.5 million, pushing its total past $300 million, all the way to $316.4 million. That's enough to get it past Thor: Ragnarok to be the second-highest grosser of the holiday season. It should pass It by the end of this weekend, and perhaps Spider-Man: Homecoming as well.
Debuting in 2nd and 3rd were 12 Strong and Den of Thieves, respectively. Both movies outgrossed Jumanji on Friday, but the family audience turned out for the rest of the weekend. 12 Strong's $15.8 million opening is probably a bit of a disappointment, given that it trails the other four January true military story openings of the past few years. Den of Thieves, on the other hand, greatly outdrew expectations with its $15.2 million arrival.
The Post held up OK in 4th with $11.7 million, and The Greatest Showman continued its remarkable run with another $10.6 million. Further down the list, Star Wars: The Last Jedi finally past $600 million, and faux-Nicolas Sparks movie Forever My Girl opened wanly in 10th at $4.2 million.
This weekend brings out one brand-new wide release in Maze Runner: The Death Cure, which seems to be the last gasp of Hunger Games-inspired adaptations of dystopian YA novels. The first two Maze Runners both opened over $30 million. It's been 2 1/2 years since the second film, so I don't expect an opening anywhere near there, but it should be enough to push Jumanji off the top spot.
The other movie going wide is Hostiles, the downbeat Western starring Christian Bale that has been playing in limited release since Christmas. This expansion would make sense if the film had been nominated for numerous Oscars this week. Instead, it was completely shut out, so why its expanding so wide, I don't know. Among films that were nominated, The Shape of Water seems to be picking up the most screens, appropriate since it has the most nominations. Expect plenty of mainstream moviegoers to say "13 nominations! I got to check this out!", followed by a good chunk of said audience saying a couple hours later "The fuck did I just watch?".
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Post by MarkInTexas on Jan 31, 2018 17:35:34 GMT -5
After 3 weeks at the top of the box office, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle finally ceded the top spot to newcomer Maze Runner: The Death Cure, which opened to an OK $24.2 million. As expected, this is down from the first two, though not devistatingly so. Still, Disneyith Century Fox is probably breathing a sigh of relef for bucking the trend of making two movies out of the final novel in a YA series.
Jumanji fell to second, but it still made another $16.1 million, good enough for the 6th best 6th weekend ever. It's total now stands at $337.8 million, good enough for 5th for 2017. It has a very outside chance of making the $50 million more needed to catch Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, but reality will likely set in very soon. Jumanji should have a sharper-than-average fall this weekend, thanks to the Super Bowl, and then the sheer number of new wide releases coming in the next few weeks should mean it will lose a large chunk of screens every week from here on in. Still, this film has defied expectations its entire run, so don't count it out yet.
Having a surprisingly strong wide opening in 3rd is Hostiles, which took in $10.1 million despite being grim and bloody. The film is by no means a blockbuster, but it will ended up making more than I thought it would. In 4th was the other strong-legged Christmas release, The Greatest Showman, which had the 48th greatest weekend of a film in its 6th week of release. Perhaps the most amazing thing about Showman's run is that its opening weekend is still its lowest-grossing weekend. For a film this far into its run, that's just incredible. In 5th is The Post, which had the best weekend of this year's major Oscar contenders, as it took in $9.1 million.
Speaking of Oscar contenders, The Shape of Water, perhaps the finest cinematic exploration of the romantic life of a fish-man since The Incredible Mr. Limpet, jumped to 8th with $5.9 million, which is not that great for a film that had just received 13 Oscar nominations but pretty good for a film about the romantic life of a fish-man. Farther down, Star Wars: The Last Jedi fell out of the Top 10, finishing 11th with $4.2 million. The Avengers, which is currently 5th place of all time, is just $12 million away, so it should get there, but it won't get any farther.
As the studios try to avoid Super Bowl weekend, only one new film is out this weekend: the rather silly-looking haunted house movie Winchester, for which I hope Helen Mirren was paid a small fortune to star in. We'll find out next week which film was able to shuffle its way to the top.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Feb 9, 2018 13:43:21 GMT -5
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle returned to the #1 slot for its 7th weekend of wide release. The last film to be #1 this far into its run was Avatar. By any measure, Jumanji's romp through January has been most impressive. However, after looking at the data, I am now convinced that the film's success is at least partially because everything that came out in January was more or less a dud.
January has a well-deserved reputation for being a dumping ground. Still, blockbusters are routinely launched during the month, either from films that opened in limited release in December before going nationwide in January (Hidden Figures, The Revenant, American Sniper) or were "homegrown" January films that caught on (Split, Kung Fu Panda 3, Ride Along).
This January didn't have that. Insidious: The Last Key, currently the highest-grossing film initially released last month, is at $66 million and probably will fall well short of $70 million. The Post, which is currently last month's highest grossing wide release, is at $68 million, but it seems like it will run out of steam below $90 million. While both movies are successes, neither was a smash.
The results get more dire the farther down the January list you go. Den of Thieves will overperform, but will still be lucky to get to $50 million. 12 Strong underperformed, and will also be lucky to get to $50 million. The Commuter, Proud Mary, and Paddington 2 will all finish well below that amount.
The Maze Runner: The Death Cure seems likely to end up the 3rd highest grossing film release in January but feel below a 7-week old move in its second weekend. It won't come close to the $100 million the first two Maze Runners did. Opening in third was the horror movie Winchester, which proves that not even Helen Mirren can liven up silly ghost stories. The Greatest Showman continues its run as Mini-Jumanji, coming in 4th for the 5th time in its 7-week run, an incredible statistic all its own. So far, 8 movies outgrossed Showman at least once during a weekend, only to fall below Showman's weekend gross 1 or 2 weeks later. I'm willing to bet that, this weekend, Winchester makes it #9.
Speaking of this weekend, the Winter/Spring movie season more or less launches with 3 big titles--none of which look all that good. At one point, it looked like The 15:17 to Paris might be the year's first Oscar contender, but director Clint Eastwood's decision to cast Spencer Stone, Anthony Sadler, and Alek Skarlatos as themselves, rather than cast, say, Lucas Till or Daniel Kaluuya as the heroic Americans who take down a gunman on the titular train has proven to be--well, lets just say the reviews agree that they are better heroes than actors. Meanwhile, Beatrix Potter's beloved The Tale of Peter Rabbit is bizarrely transformed into a half CGI, half live action Home Alone ripoff, and America's favorite Twilight fan fiction trilogy finally comes to an end with Fifty Shades Freed. I can't wait to miss all these movies, but moviegoers will likely turn out for all of them, meaning that Jumanji will spend weekend #8 all the way down in 4th.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Feb 14, 2018 11:59:25 GMT -5
The winter/spring movie season finally got underway this weekend with the arrival of three big releases. Leading the pack was Fifty Shades Freed, which took in $38.6 million. At first glance, that's not a bad total. It's the highest opening so far of 2018, and it grossed more than Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle did on any of its weekends at #1. However, compared to last year's Fifty Shades Darker, which opened to $46.6 million, and especially to the original three years ago, which opened to $85.2 million, much of the franchise's audience decided they were already freed. If it has similar legs to the first two, it could finish anywhere from around $75 million (or lower than the first film's opening weekend) to just under $100 million.
Coming in second was Peter Rabbit, which borrowed the names and physical descriptions from Beatrix Potter's beloved works of children's lit and threw out pretty much everything else in favor of a slapstick romp. The live-action/animated hybrid opened to $25 million, again not a bad total, until you realize that's almost exactly what last summer's The Emoji Movie, another Sony Animation release prominently featuring the voice of James Cordon, opened to. To Peter's advantage, reviews, while not great, weren't anywhere near the apocalyptic levels of Emoji's. This might be able to pull out a decent run, given that only one other family film opens before A Wrinkle in Time arrives a month from now, but $100 million looks like a longshot.
Coming in a distant third at $12.6 million is The 15:17 to Paris, director Clint Eastwood's second consecutive full-length film about a real-life act of heroism that in reality only took a few minutes. With Sully, Eastwood was smart enough to cast Tom Hanks as Captain Sully Sullenberger. With 15:17, he casts the real-life heroes as themselves. Sometimes, hiring amateur actors can work out very well. Other times, not so much, and while reviewers were quick to emphasize that the film had other problems besides the lead trio, they couldn't help but point out that they were much better heroes than actors.
Jumanji, as expected, fell to fourth, but only eased off 8.3% from the weekend before. At this point, it is less than $25 million away from Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2. While the $45 million gap between it and Wonder Woman might be too much to bridge, it looks like Guardians will, in the next few weeks, fall below Jumanji.
The Greatest Showman came in 5th, and saw two more movies that had once been above it on the weekend box office chart fall below it, in this case The Maze Runner and Winchester.
This week brings out a small art-house movie about a kingdom in Africa. Anyone heard of this Black Panther movie? In all seriousness, this should become the second February release to top $100 million opening weekend. Indeed, most observers think it won't have any issue topping Deadpool's $132.4 million from two years ago to become the biggest February opening ever.
Trying to provide counter-programming is Aardman Animation's Early Man, the third of four veddy British kids films on tap in the first quarter (along with Paddington 2, the aforementioned Peter Rabbit, and next month's Sherlock Gnomes). For the religious crowd, there's Pure Flix's Samson, an adaption of the Biblical story of the legendary strongman and his (in this version, PG-13) ill-advised dalliance with Delilah. Will either of these two movies earn even 1/10th of what Black Panther will take in this weekend? We'll have to see.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Feb 21, 2018 11:56:48 GMT -5
Everyone was expecting Black Panther to be big and to beat Deadpool's February opening record. Nobody was expecting it to shatter it to the tune of $70 million and become only the fifth film in history to open to over $200 million. And that was just on the Friday-Sunday part of the holiday weekend. It took in another $40 million on Monday, the highest amount ever earned on a Monday, edging out the first Monday gross for Star Wars: The Force Awakens (which occurred on what for many people was the first day of Christmas break). Force still has the 4-day championship, but Black Panther is at #2.
How big was Black Panther? By the end of the day Friday, it had already outgrossed every other movie that had been initially released in 2018. By the end of the day Monday, it had outgrossed every other movie in release during 2018--at $242 million, compared to Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle's $210 million earned since January 1. That $242 million would be good enough to be the 10th highest grosser of 2017--ahead of Justice League.
The question everyone is asking now is just how big Black Panther could be? If it follows the track of Deadpool, it should finish with around $550 million, which would put it around 7th for all-time and above The Dark Knight. If if follows the somewhat leggier course of last year's February superhero movie, The Lego Batman Movie, it will wrap up around $670 million--good enough for third all time. If it has as good of legs as last year's top superhero movie, Wonder Woman, then Black Panther will finish in the neighborhood of $800 million--less than The Force Awakens, but more than Avatar.
Despite rapturous reviews and excellent word-of-mouth, $800 million is probably way more than this film will earn domestically. My guess it will finish over $600 million--how much over, I don't know, but probably below the $670 million if it follows Lego Batman's path.
Even though Black Panther dominated the box office, it wasn't the only film in release, and indeed wasn't even the only film to do relatively well for itself over the weekend. Peter Rabbit held up surprisingly well, dropping only 30% and earning another $17.5 million. It's still a long shot for $100 million domestic, but it will get close. Coming in 3rd was Fifty Shades Freed, which fell 55% to $17.3 million. That's actually the best second weekend drop in the franchise, slightly better than the 56.5% drop of Fifty Shades Darker last year--and that film didn't go up against a megablockbuster in its second weekend. That suggests that Freed might just make it to $100 million--though if it does, it will just barely get there.
Jumanji continued its excellent run in 4th, finishing its 9th weekend in the Top 5. Given this weekend's dire offerings, there's no reason to think it won't finish in the Top 5 again next weekend. The 15L17 to Paris slipped to 5th, and The Greatest Showman is finally beginning to run out of steam in 6th.
On paper, the decision to counterprogram Black Panther with a cartoon and a religious drama seemed like a good idea. In reality, the animated film, Aardman's Early Man, opened disastrously, taking in only $3.2 million. Blame family audiences choosing either Black Panther or Peter Rabbit. Opening even worse was Samson, whose hair got cut by the box office, with only $1.9 million.
Black Panther should easily cruse to #1 again this weekend. The top release is Game Night, a silly and violent-looking comedy starring Jason Bateman, from the writer of The Country Bears and the directors of the Vacation reboot/remake. There's also the sci-fi actioner Annihilation, whose reviews haven't been too bad so far, but which Paramount is dumping, and the YA romance Every Day. Expect none of them to come within $80 million of Black Panther.
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Post by Jean-Luc Lemur on Feb 24, 2018 18:23:54 GMT -5
On paper, the decision to counterprogram Black Panther with a cartoon and a religious drama seemed like a good idea. In reality, the animated film, Aardman's Early Man, opened disastrously, taking in only $3.2 million. Blame family audiences choosing either Black Panther or Peter Rabbit. Opening even worse was Samson, whose hair got cut by the box office, with only $1.9 million. I feel like this is always what happens to Aardman films in the US, maybe with Chicken Run as an exception. They kind of seem to always fit between the cracks of mass taste—there’s a lot in them that’s broadly appealing, but the combination of various elements always seems to restrict them to niche audiences ( Pirates, for instance, appeals to people who like elaborate visual gags, the history of science, and making a complete hash out of real historical figures, which ends up a pretty small category). NPR decided to give Tobias a break from reviewing second-tier Indie films and he loved Early Man, too. Of course I’m part of the problem since I haven’t seen it yet and it’s already getting scarce in theaters. Or maybe that’s just because they don’t have later showings (I haven’t seen a “family film” in the theater since I was in Amsterdam, when they’d have later-night showings of stuff like The Lego Movie and Muppets Most Wanted with subtitles for expats). |
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Post by MarkInTexas on Feb 26, 2018 10:47:08 GMT -5
Since Chicken Run, Aardman has had tons of bad luck at least in the US market. That film was helped by both being very good, having a relatively universal storyline, and having the then-beloved Mel Gibson to help tamper worries it might be too British.
Aardman made a mistake in waiting over 5 years before releasing their next full-length film, and Wallace and Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit had the misfortune of being the second stop-motion, family-friendly horror-comedy featuring the voice of Helena Bonham Carter to come out in three weeks. "Stop-motion, family-friendly horror-comedy" is going to be kind of a tough sale to begin with, even in October, and I can't help but feel that Were-Rabbit and Corpse Bride cannibalized each other's audiences (though there were plenty of people, like me, who saw both in theaters). Aardman at least won the Animated Feature Oscar that year (since Pixar took 2005 off).
A year later, Flushed Away suffered from both being pretty bad and sheer awful timing. For some reason, it opened the same day as another big-budgeted family movie in The Santa Clause 3. It also had the bad luck to open the same day as Borat, which promptly sucked up every bit of pop-culture oxygen. Then, two weeks later, Happy Feet opened, and that was it for Flushed Away.
DreamWorks dropped Aardman after that, and it was another 5 years before their next movie, Arthur Christmas, which I didn't even realize was an Aardman film. It opened Thanksgiving weekend in a family movie glut, with The Muppets, Happy Feet 2, and Hugo all competing for the same audience. All four movies ended up underperforming (though Hugo ended up having strong legs thanks to awards season), but Arthur underperformed worst of all.
Pirates! opened only five months later, but that was pretty much a dump by Sony, as it opened only a week before The Avengers. After that, Sony dropped them and Lionsgate released Shawn the Sheep with little promotion in August 2015. And now, Early Man, which will likely be the lowest-grossing Aardman film yet. It might be a while before we get another one.
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Post by Jean-Luc Lemur on Feb 26, 2018 21:00:25 GMT -5
The Early Man showing I tried to go to last night was sold out, weirdly enough.
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Post by Jean-Luc Lemur on Feb 27, 2018 17:23:38 GMT -5
So Annihilation evidently did super-poorly last weekend, with the big structural reasons behind it laid out pretty well in this article (I disagree with some of his critical judgments, but they’re pretty irrelevant to the broader case he’s making). One thing missing, though, is that Black Panther’s still going strong so even taking account the big structural factors making it difficult for big non-action/tentpole speculative fiction films Annihilation was facing an unusually bad environment, too (they’re not the same sort of film at all, but I have no trouble believing the audience that’s interested in seeing Annihilation is also mostly interested in seeing Black Panther). |
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Post by MarkInTexas on Mar 2, 2018 15:32:05 GMT -5
I can see where this guy is coming from, but I think he's wrong in a lot of ways. For starters, while Annihilation is far from a smash, it's also not anywhere close to a disaster, either. It had the second largest per-screen last week in the Top 10 (and third in the Top 25), despite opening on only 2,000 screens with next to no promotion. Had it had a wider release and some commercials, it probably would have outpaced Game Night (though not Black Panther). For another, while he's not wrong that movies aimed primarily at adults aren't doing nearly as well as they used to, there are numerous examples of hit films aimed primarily at an adult audience just last year. Dunkirk, Get Out, Hidden Figures, Split, Wonder, Girls Trip, and Murder on the Orient Express all grossed over $100 million last year, with minimal kid appeal.
He specifically points to three late-year films from Sony to explain his position. What he doesn't mention is that both Only the Brave and Roman J. Israel, Esq. were essentially dumps after the studio realized they weren't going to be Oscar contenders (though Denzel Washington got a nomination for Israel, anyway). I don't think anything could have saved Brave (in this 24-hour news cycle world, movies about recent disasters and tragedies rarely do well). Israel probably would have flopped as well, though it certainly could have made more than it did had Sony put some marketing behind it. Denzel alone should have doubled its gross. As for All the Money in the World, the two big stores surrounding it (Plummer for Spacey and Wahlberg and William's salaries for the reshoots) weren't exactly positive. The film also suffered from being released into a very crowded market on Christmas. Sony probably should have taken the route that Fox took with The Post, and gave it an Oscar-qualifying limited run in December before a wide release in January. That film will probably finish around $90 million--admittedly not a fantastic final gross, but not awful, either. The article also ignores that 4 Oscar movies--Darkest Hour, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards... are either over $50 million or will get there in the next few weeks. So while it is true that the multiplex these days are dominated by franchise films, there are still plenty of movies aimed at adults that draw large audiences.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Mar 4, 2018 3:29:30 GMT -5
Any hope that Black Panther would be a one-week wonder was dashed when the film scored a staggering $111.6 million for its second weekend, the second-biggest second weekend of all time. The film finished the weekend with $403.6 million in the bank, the second-biggest gross after 10 days of release.
At this point, the best tracker might be Jurassic World. That film made about $6 million more than Black Panther did on their respective opening weekends, and Panther made about $5 million more than Jurassic did on their respective second weekends. At the end of last weekend, Panther had about a million more in the bank than Jurassic did at the end of its second weekend. Jurassic will likely to continue to lose ground to Panther on the weekends, but should be able to make up some of the difference on weekdays, given that Jurassic played during the summer, and Panther will be limited by playing in February and March (while Panther's weekdays numbers have been good, they've hardly been record-breaking). Jurassic finished its run at $652.2 million. Expect Panther to finish somewhat higher than that, though most likely still below $700 million.
Opening in a distant, distant second was Game Night, which got better than expected reviews and finished with a not-terrible $17 million. Third went to Peter Rabbit, which continues to be the top non-Marvel family film out, and now is likely to make it to $100 million. Opening 4th was the sci-fi actioner Annihilation, which rode warm reviews to the second-highest per-screen in the Top 10. It's not a hit, but not a flop, either, and it might have done better if Paramount hadn't essentially dumped it. Fifty Shades Freed came in fifth. Ironically, even though it will have the lowest grosses of the trilogy, it seems likely to have the best legs, legs that should carry it over the $100 million mark.
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle fell out of the top 5 for the first time, finishing 6th for the weekend. It and fellow Christmas opener The Greatest Showman (which finished 8th) should get at least one more weekend in the Top 10. Jumanji won't get close to Frozen, whose 16 weeks in the Top 10 is by far the most of this decade, but if it can stick around for a couple more weekends, it will at least tie the 13 weekends that Zootopia and La La Land lasted.
As the weekend is already underway, it looks like Panther will easily win for the third straight week, over Jennifer Lawrence and Jennifer Lawrence's boobs in Red Sparrow, and Bruce Willis on the NRA masturbatory fantasy Death Wish. We'll talk about those and every other movie soon.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Mar 8, 2018 5:38:50 GMT -5
Black Panther had another incredible weekend, grossing $66.3 million, enough to give it the third highest third weekend of all time. #1 & #2? That would be Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar, aka the #1 and #2 highest grossing domestic films of all time (it should be noted that both Star Wars and Avatar's 3rd weekends fell over New Year's weekend, while Black Panther's fell on a random weekend in March). That doesn't mean that Black Panther is going to end up #3 all time, but it is only about $150 million away from #3 Titanic, which is only $7 million ahead of #4 Jurassic World, which Black Panther continues to track almost identically.
At the end of weekend #3, Jurassic World was at $500.4 million. Black Panther finished Sunday with $501.7 million. Panther had a much better weekend ($66.3 million vs. $54.5 million), but Jurassic made up the difference by having stronger weekdays. However, that trend might be changing. Last week, Jurassic was winning comparable weekdays by roughly $3 million per day, giving it enough cushion so that the films remained even at the end of the weekend. Jurassic is still winning the weekdays this week, but by less than $2 million per day. If Panther has a significantly better 4th weekend than Jurassic did, Panther could pull into the lead for good, though I still don't expect it to finish that much above Jurassic's final total.
Opening in a distant second is Red Sparrow, which was initially scheduled for release in November, I suspect because Fox was thinking Jennifer Lawrence might have a shot at an Oscar nomination. Instead, it opened in March to so-so reviews and $16.9 million, a bit less than what Joy made back in 2015. That film opened on Christmas Day, though, so Joy's final gross of $56.5 million is probably out of reach. Expect Sparrow to land somewhere around $40 million, which would make it her lowest-grossing non-Mother! wide release since The House at the End of the Street.
Another potential November release shipped off to March, Death Wish, opened in 3rd with $13 million. This result will probably not encourage studios to rescue Bruce Willis from the direct-to-DVD action movie hell he's been in for the past few years, but he does have a couple of interesting titles coming up next year, the Edward Norton mystery Motherless Brooklyn and Glass, the sequel to both Unbreakable and Split. As for Death Wish, there probably aren't enough NRA members willing to buy tickets for it to get much above $30 million.
Farther down the chart, Game Night held decently, Annihilation didn't, Peter Rabbit and Fifty Shades Freed both continued to creep toward $100 million, and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman spent their 11th weekend in the Top 10. This is probably it for Showman, but Jumanji still probably has a week or two left before dropping out. Even farther down, with one exception, positions #11-19 were held by movies with major Oscar nominations, as audiences checked out The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, The Post, Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, Lady Bird, and I Tonya before the big night (the one interloper was The 15:17 to Paris at #12, which will not be one of next year's nominees). The Shape of Water should see a bump this weekend, and maybe so will Three Billboards and Darkest Hour, but expect the other movies to fade out as they head toward DVD and PPV streaming.
This weekend's big opening is A Wrinkle in Time, which for months Disney was positioning as the megablockbuster of the spring. Then Black Panther opened, became a megamegablockbuster, and sucked up all the oxygen, so much so that Wrinkle's opening now seems like almost an afterthought, to the point that I have no clue how well it will do this weekend. If Panther falls by about 40%, it will make another $40 million this weekend. Will that be enough to beat Wrinkle? A month ago, I would have said no. Now...
My best comparison right now is Tomorrowland, which also arrived on a wave of hype, but ended up crashing and burning. It opened Memorial Day weekend to $42.7 million over the four days, a total that I could see Wrinkle making. Or Wrinkle could make $20 million more than that. Or Wrinkle could make $10 million less. I have no idea. Unless it finishes with $10 million or $100 million for the weekend, nothing about its performance will surprise me.
Also opening, presumably below Wrinkle and Panther, will be Gringo, a violent-looking action comedy with a better cast than it probably deserves, The Hurricane Heist, an extremely silly-looking actioner directed by Rob Cohen, who has spent his career making extremely silly-looking actioners (the commercials never fail to remind that he directed the original The Fast and the Furious, and the title font is the exact same font that series uses), and The Strangers: Prey at Night, a decade-later sequel to the mostly forgotten home invasion thriller from 2008 (a film audiences liked a lot better a few years later when it was called The Purge). Expect all of them to finish below $20 million.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Mar 15, 2018 14:24:46 GMT -5
In the end, it wasn't even close. Black Panther made another $40.8 million over the weekend, racing up to #7 on the all-time domestic gross list, and handily beating A Wrinkle in Time, which opened to $33.1 million. Panther had the 3rd best 4th weekend ever, behind only the 4th weekends of Avatar and Star Wars: The Force Awakens--aka the two movies that will likely be the only ones still higher than Black Panther on the domestic gross list once its run is concluded.
For the first time, Panther's gross broke away from Jurassic World, as it finished the weekend with $5 million more than Jurassic had earned by the end of its fourth weekend. Jurassic had about 85% of its final gross by this point in its run. If Panther follows the same trajectory, it should finish around $660 million--higher than both #4 Jurassic and #3 Titanic. I think that number might be a bit low, actually--I'm going to guess a final gross between $670 and $680 million. There's even the outside chance it could break $700 million.
The sensational performance of Black Panther has made people speculate about how huge Avengers: Infinity War could end up being. There is no doubt that Avengers will be a monster--quite possibility the third film of the last six months to break $600 million domestic (something, that before last December, had happened only 5 previous times). But I don't think it will outgross Panther--and it goes beyond the fact that Deadpool 2 and Solo open only a few weeks later, as opposed to the relatively clear field Panther has had throughout its run so far.
For a film to make as much as Panther has, it has to draw out a large number of people who rarely go to the movies. Many of those people came to see Panther specifically because it was about a black superhero, and a black superhero hadn't been the focus of a movie since the end of the Blade trilogy. Indeed, not only does Black Panther have a black superhero, it has almost an entirely black cast. The only two non-black characters who have significant roles are the secondary bad guy and the audience surrogate character. In addition, the film has a significant female presence, and each major female character can--and does--stand up and fight for herself. There are no damsels in distress anywhere to be found. The percentage of the audience who has shown up to see superheroes will show up for Avengers. The percentage who has shown up because Panther has become a cultural phenomenon might show up for Avengers. But I suspect that the percentage who came specifically to see black heroes and black heroines might not be so eager to go see a movie where the black hero is regulated to a supporting player admit a sea of white guys--and most likely the female characters will be nowhere to be found. Avengers: Infinity War will make a ton. But without those audience members, it won't make as much as Black Panther.
But I digress--Disney is undoubtedly disappointed with the grosses for Wrinkle, which ended up making almost the exact same amount that Tomorrowland made during the first 3 days of its 4-day opening weekend. Even with Memorial Day being day #4, Tomorrowland still fell short of $100 million. Even if Wrinkle makes it that far, it almost certainly won't go much farther. This is actually a bit troubling, since there are only two films on Disney's current release slate that are not sequels, remakes, franchise entries, or animated. If this November's The Nutcracker and the Four Realms flops, we may very likely get a live action Fox and the Hound or Black Cauldron before we get anything original out of the Mouse House again.
Opening OK at 3rd was Strangers: Prey at Night. The original Strangers opened to almost $21 million back in 2008. This one is pretty lucky to earn $10.4 million. At least it had a halfway decent opening. Audiences pretty much ignored The Hurricane Heist and Gringo, the latter failing to even make the Top 10.
Red Sparrow and Death Wish both fell nearly 50%, suggesting that they'll be out of theaters pretty quickly. Game Night and Peter Rabbit have both proven to be surprisingly leggy, with the latter likely hopping past $100 million by Easter. Also heading toward $100 million is 50 Shades Freed, though it will have to make the remaining $1.6 million it needs from outside the Top 10.
Speaking of the Top 10, The Greatest Showman finally departed from it after 11 weeks. Hanging on--barely, was Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which snagged #10 by only about $20,000 over #11 Gringo. Odds are that this is its final weekend in the Top 10 as well, but its likely that Hurricane Heist and Annihilation will fall below it this weekend. If Death Wish also falls below it, Jumanji might be able to eke out one more weekend in the Top 10.
Also outside the Top 10, Best Picture The Shape of Water had a nice jump to push its total over $60 million. Its also the highest-grossing winner since Argo in 2012. The black comedy Thoroughbreds did so-so business, and the historically-based black comedy The Death of Stalin did excellent business.
A 40% drop for Black Panther this weekend will put it around $25 million. That likely won't be enough for another week at the top of the chart. Likely to take over is Tomb Raider, which stars Supporting Actress Oscar winner Alicia Vikander taking over the role of Lara Croft: tomb raider from Supporting Actress Oscar winner Angelina Jolie. Lara Croft: Tomb Raider opened in 2001 to $47.7 million, at the height of both Jolie's and the game's popularity. Despite 17 years of ticket price inflation, it seems unrealistic to think the new Tomb Raider will make that this weekend, but an opening in the $30 millions seems likely.
Possibly pushing Black Panther down to third is the YA adaption Love, Simon, starring Jurassic World's Nick Robinson as the titular Simon, a closeted highschooler who finds himself falling for his online, anonymous, equally closeted pen pal. This one is getting a lot more attention than a typical "real world" YA film because, as far as I can tell, this is the first big studio wide release movie with a gay lead character since Bruno in 2009. The biggest opening for a "real world" YA adaption is The Fault in Our Stars, which opened to $48 million in 2014. If Tomb Raider won't make that much, Love, Simon won't, either, but it should finish in the high $20s or lower $30s.
This weekend's third wide opening, I Can Only Imagine, won't beat Black Panther, but could make over $10 million. The drama, about the back story behind the writing of the beloved Christian ballad, co-stars Dennis Quaid, and more often than not, casting a mainstream name not normally known for Christian movies tends to pay off. I Can Only Imagine better imagine a big opening, though, because with two more major Christian-aimed movies opening before Easter, its time in the box office spotlight could be short.
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Post by chalkdevil 😈 on Mar 16, 2018 9:38:33 GMT -5
But I digress--Disney is undoubtedly disappointed with the grosses for Wrinkle, which ended up making almost the exact same amount that Tomorrowland made during the first 3 days of its 4-day opening weekend. Even with Memorial Day being day #4, Tomorrowland still fell short of $100 million. Even if Wrinkle makes it that far, it almost certainly won't go much farther. This is actually a bit troubling, since there are only two films on Disney's current release slate that are not sequels, remakes, franchise entries, or animated. If this November's The Nutcracker and the Four Realms flops, we may very likely get a live action Fox and the Hound or Black Cauldron before we get anything original out of the Mouse House again. The performance of Wrinkle in Time is interesting. It seemed like people were pretty interested in it. I saw the trailer in a few times in theaters and there were always murmurs of approval among the crowd. Maybe the middling reviews kept folks from actually buying a ticket or just going to see Black Panther again. Also, I would be interested in a live action Black Cauldron movie. Not one that followed the terrible animated movie, but one that followed The Chronicles of Prydain book series I loved as a kid. Although it would nearly be guaranteed to be a failed series after the first movie under performs due to it being an indifferently shot by a journeyman director who churns out a PG-13 action-fantasy movie staring some boring actor as the lead, who is 19 years old trying to play 13 and at least one Oscar winner filling out a supporting roll and cashing a nice paycheck. The main villain will be a CGI cartoon with the voice of someone like Ian McShane but modulated so much for it to barely even matter. |
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Post by MarkInTexas on Mar 18, 2018 18:12:54 GMT -5
The performance of Wrinkle in Time is interesting. It seemed like people were pretty interested in it. I saw the trailer in a few times in theaters and there were always murmurs of approval among the crowd. Maybe the middling reviews kept folks from actually buying a ticket or just going to see Black Panther again. Also, I would be interested in a live action Black Cauldron movie. Not one that followed the terrible animated movie, but one that followed The Chronicles of Prydain book series I loved as a kid. Although it would nearly be guaranteed to be a failed series after the first movie under performs due to it being an indifferently shot by a journeyman director who churns out a PG-13 action-fantasy movie staring some boring actor as the lead, who is 19 years old trying to play 13 and at least one Oscar winner filling out a supporting roll and cashing a nice paycheck. The main villain will be a CGI cartoon with the voice of someone like Ian McShane but modulated so much for it to barely even matter. Disney has been using March as a launching pad for blockbusters for a few years, with a lot of successes (Alice in Wonderland, Oz the Great and Powerful, Cinderella, Zootopia, Beauty and the Beast), and a few flops (Mars Needs Moms, John Carter). I don't think anyone involved thought they were going to get Beauty and the Beast numbers, but I have to think that the worst-case scenario before February was equaling Cinderellas's $200 million domestic. Now, they'll be lucky if they get half of that. Other than the quality of the film (which I haven't seen yet) and the continued dominance of Black Panther, I don't know what went wrong. Maybe the book wasn't as beloved as Disney assumed it was, maybe the marketing focused too much on Oprah and general weirdness. Who knows. The profits from Black Panther will more than make up for any money Wrinkle loses. I hesitated to put down Black Cauldron because that property is definitely ripe for revisiting, but the film remains a sore spot for Disney. If they do ever decide to try again (assuming they still own the series rights), they'll probably call it anything but The Black Cauldron and really hope that articles and reviews don't mention the animated movie. |
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Post by MarkInTexas on Mar 22, 2018 14:07:43 GMT -5
It is beginning to feel like "Wakanda Forever" is also a reference to the length of time Black Panther will be the #1 movie in America, as it became the first film since Avatar to spend 5 straight weeks at the top of the chart, taking in another $26.7 million and becoming only the 7th film in history to top $600 million domestic. It reached that point in only 31 days, faster than any of the other five except Star Wars: The Force Awakens (which made such an absurd amount of money over the 2015 holidays it hit $600 million on it's 12th day of release). This was the 4th best 5th weekend ever, as only Titanic, Avatar, and Frozen (whose final gross Panther passed weeks ago) had better 5th weekends. However, those three films had their 5th weekends on holiday weekends (Titanic and Avatar on MLK Weekend, and Frozen the weekend between Christmas and New Year's), unlike Panther, unless you want to count St. Patrick's Day.
Of the four other films released this decade to top $600 million, they finished their 5th weekend with anywhere from 88% to 95% of their final grosses already earned (Star Wars: The Last Jedi is still in release, but it only has a few hundred thousand at most left in the tank, so I don't anticipate its final percentage to change much at all). That would suggest a final gross of under $690 million for Panther. However, Panther has so far exhibited better legs than the other four, never having a weekend decline of over 44.7% so far (the other four had at least one weekend in its first five with a decline of at least 49%). While most of the money Black Panther will earn has already been earned, those legs suggest that the final domestic gross will likely be above $700 million, becoming only the third film in history to top that number.
After the disappointing grosses of 2003's ridiculously titled Lara Croft: Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life, the franchise was considered dead and buried until this weekend, when it was excavated. They shouldn't have bothered. The new Tomb Raider, now with Alicia Vikander playing Lara Croft instead of Angelina Jolie, opened in 2nd with $23.6 million. That does outgross--barely--the opening of Cradle of Life, with earned $21.8 million (in 2003 dollars) 15 years ago, but far below the first Jolie Tomb Raider, which took in $47.7 million its opening weekend in 2001. That number suggests a final domestic gross of the new Tomb Raider well under $100 million, a total that will probably send the franchise back six feet under, unless international grosses save it. And, to be sure, it's already over $100 million overseas. If we do get a Tomb Raider 2, it won't be because of America.
Proving once again that Christian movie producers would be wise to hire at least one well-known, mainstream actor with few ties to the Christian movie industry, I Can Only Imagine opened to an amazing $17.1 million, catching analysts off guard. The story of the background of the hit song, which features Dennis Quaid as the alcoholic father of singer/songwriter Bart Milard, is the latest hit for the notoriously up-and-down Christian movie industry. Given the rather generic title, the presence of Quaid, and the good word of mouth, I Can Only Imagine is in good shape to do battle with the other two Christan movies opening in the next week, Paul: Apostle of Christ, and God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness.
In fourth is A Wrinkle in Time, falling by half from last weekend's underwhelming opening. Wrinkle stands at $60.8 after 10 days, which is off the path of Tomorrowland, which finished with only $93.4 million. This is not to say that Wrinkle can't get to $100 million, but it's going to be an uphill struggle.
Disappointing in 5th is Love, Simon, the first movie in years with a GLBT protagonist. Despite a large advertising campaign, it only opened to $11.8 million, which is only slightly above the opening star Nick Robinson's last YA adaption, the much less hyped Everything, Everything. That (straight) romance finished with $34.1 million, which will likely be around Simon's final gross unless word of mouth catches on. Hopefully, this won't mean we'll have to wait another 9 years for the next mainstream film with a GLBT lead.
Father down the chart, Peter Rabbit topped $100 million and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle topped $400 million. It was a bittersweet weekend for Jumanji, as the film fell out of the top 10 after 12 weeks. Still, it managed to outgross Seven Days in Entebbe, the latest retelling of the 1976 raid to save Israeli hostages being held in Uganda after a skyjacking.
For whatever reason, a whopping 5 movies are being released this weekend. The biggest is Pacific Rim: Uprising, a sequel to Guillermo Del Toro's $200 million cult movie about giant robots fighting giant monsters. If anyone's curious as to why a film that grossed only half its budget in the United States is getting a sequel, the answer is, of course, international. Del Toro is only producing this time, leaving direction to Steven S. DeKnight, a TV director making his theatrical debut. Another unexpected sequel, Sherlock Gnomes, is a followup to the surprise hit animated Gnomeo and Juliet. That film came out in 2011, though, which suggests this sequel, which adds Johnny Depp as the voice of the aforementioned Sherlock Gnomes, is probably coming out about 5 years too late. Midnight Sun, starring Bella Thorne as a teenage girl who can't be exposed to sunlight and Patrick Schwarzenegger (yes, Arnold's son) as her new boyfriend, feels like it should be an adaption of a YA novel, but it's not (instead, it's an adaption of a Japanese film). Paul: Apostle of Christ (featuring former Jesus Jim Caviezel in a supporting role) will try to go for the Christian crowd that came out to support I Can Only Imagine. Finely, Steven Soderbergh's Unsane, which was shot entirely on an iPhone, also arrives. In addition, Wes Anderson's Isle of Dogs opens in limited release. How will these films do? We'll find out next week.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Mar 28, 2018 16:11:34 GMT -5
It had to happen eventually. Black Panther wasn't going to rule the box office forever. After five weeks on top, it fell to the appropriately named Pacific Rim: Uprising, which opened in first with $28.1 million (that would have been enough to win last weekend, as well, showing again how weak Tomb Raider's opening was). Not all is sunny in the world of giant robots battling giant monsters, though. The film opened well off the original's $37.3 million in 2013, and that film just barely cleared $100 million domestic. If Uprising follows the same trajectory, it will finish under $80 million in North America. Of course, Universal knew from the beginning that overseas would be where the film would earn most of its money, and given that Box Office Mojo is indicating its already earned $122 million overseas, the North American release is pure gravy.
Panther came in second with $17.1 million, enough for it to have the fourth best sixth weekend of all time. It also passed Star Wars: The Last Jedi and The Avengers to become the fifth highest grossing film ever in North America, not to mention the highest-grossing comic book/superhero movie. It's less than $20 million from #4 Jurassic World, and less than $30 million from #3 Titanic. After that, it has a strong, but not guaranteed, shot at passing $700 million, which will likely be its final major domestic milestone.
Holding steady in third is I Can Only Imagine, a film that many didn't imagine would become the sleeper hit of the spring. The Christian drama made $13.6 in its second weekend, holding better than other Christian films that opened with similar numbers. Imagine has an outside shot of hitting $100 million, and Easter this Sunday should ensure it has another strong weekend.
Opening in 4th was the all-star voice cast of Sherlock Gnomes, the fourth and final British family film to hit multiplexes this spring. It grossed $10.6 million, well off Gnomeo & Juliet's $25.4 opening 7 years ago. While its already outgrossed Early Man, it will probably be unable to catch Paddington 2's $40.4 million (Peter Rabbit, with its $107.2 million and counting, is way out of reach).
Tomb Raider, in 5th, fell 57% to $10.1 million, and has now grossed $41.4 million. Both the weekend gross and total gross are now off from what Lara Croft: Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life was at after its second weekend. That probably means Raider'18's celing is $60 million, though, like Pacific Rim: Uprising, the studio is expecting most of the money to come in from overseas. A Wrinkle in Time, in 6th, fell another 49% to $8.2 million. That's better than Tomorrowland's third weekend, but the film is still running behind where that film was after three weeks. The chance to get to $100 million is rapidly evaporating.
Love, Simon held decently in 7th at $7.6 million, off 35%, a lower decline than most YA adaptions. It has an outside shot of making it to $40 million. Game Night, in 9th, quietly passed $60 million this weekend with another $4.1 million. It will end up outgrossing the much more expensive Tomb Raider domestically (overseas, of course, is another story).
In 8th was Paul: Apostle of Christ, which handily lost the battle of Christian films this weekend, opening to $5.2 million. At least it has Easter to try for a decent second weekend hold. That's more than what fellow openers Midnight Sun (in 10th) and Unsane (in 11th) will get. Both films should end their domestic runs under $10 million.
Farther down the chart, Wes Anderson's Isle of Dogs opened solidly in limited release, earning $1.6 million. Fifty Shades Freed clawed past $100 million.
This week's big opening will be Steven Spielberg's Ready Player One, his second movie in three months. This is not the first time he's directed a popcorn movie and an Oscar contender in close proximity to each other (Jurassic Park/Schindler's List in 1993, The Lost World/Amistad in 1997, War of the Worlds/Munich in 2005), but generally, the popcorn movie comes out the summer before the Oscar movie that Christmas. This time, The Post came first, and now Player One, which got solid buzz out of a surprise SXSW screening a couple of weeks ago.
Player One is the second movie of the year (after Black Panther) to open on more than 4,000 screens, but no one is expecting anywhere near the opening of Panther. To take advantage of many schools and businesses being closed for Good Friday, Player One starts previews tonight before going into full release tomorrow. The other two movies this weekend, both of which should finish far back of Player One, will be sticking to the traditional Friday opening.
One is God's Not Dead: A Light in the Darkness, the third in the smug atheists vs. knowing Christians series. The first was an out-of-nowhere hit in 2014, the second did marginal business in 2016. With I Can Only Imagine in the marketplace, I can only imagine that this one will land closer to Part 2 than Part 1. The other is Tyler Perry's Acrimony, starring Taraji P. Henson, who, as a woman scorned, proceeds to take a revenge that Cookie Lyon would think was over the top. This is a rare R-rated film from Perry (his only other R-rated directorial effort was the failed Oscar bait For Colored Girls). Henson's last starring role, the blaxploitation throwback Proud Mary, opened to $10 million in January. I'd guess the combo of her and Perry should help this one open higher.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Apr 4, 2018 16:11:40 GMT -5
It's hard to say if Ready Player One is a hit at this point. It's not a flop, as it opened as expected to $53.7 million over its first four days. That should mean a minimum gross of $125 million domestic, and potentially higher, up to $200 million depending on its legs. That should be more than enough to make it the second-biggest film of the year, at least until Rampage, or more likely Avengers. It is also the rare blockbuster that's not a remake or a sequel or a reboot or a franchise cog. It features no familiar actors, and has already outgrossed fellow would-be blockbusters Tomb Raider and Pacific Rim: Uprising, and will likely pass A Wrinkle in Time by next weekend. And yet, this is a really expensive film, costing at least $150 million. And, of course, it's a action spectacle directed by Steven Spielberg. Having an opening that doesn't quite live up to what Scooby-Doo pulled off in 2002 isn't a particularly strong sign. Player has the advantage of a wacky April schedule that saw most films scramble for new release dates once Avengers moved to April 27. Outside of the aforementioned Rampage, there isn't anything that could be labeled eye candy opening until then. We'll see if word of mouth can lift it to, if not Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle levels, at least The Greatest Showman levels.
Opening strongly in second is Tyler Perry's Acrimony, starring Taraji P. Henson. It made $17.2 million, right in the wheelhouse of Perry's non-Madea movies. This one is more impressive than usual because of the film's R rating, which might have put off some of his usual crowd. Perry's movies tend to burn out very fast, so this one is unlikely to make more than $40 million. That should be plenty to satisfy, though.
After 7 weekends, Black Panther is finally beginning to look mortal, coming in 3rd with $11.5 million. That raises its total to $650.9 million, just short of Jurassic World's final tally. By next weekend, it should pass both World and Titanic to be #3 of all time. $700 million is still in sight, but the odds of it getting there are becoming longer.
I Can Only Imagine easily won the Christian Movie Shootout of Easter 2018, finishing 4th with $10.5 million. That brings its total to $55.3 million. At this point, it looks to finish as, at worst, the 6th highest-grossing Christian movie ever, behind only The Passion of the Christ, the three Narnia movies, and Heaven is For Real--and it still has a shot of passing Heaven for 5th.
The Uprising was easily defeated, as Pacific Rim 2 collapsed in its second weekend, losing roughly 2/3rds of its opening weekend audience to finish with $9.4 million. That puts it barely ahead of the second weekend of Sherlock Gnomes.
Turn out the Light, the God's Not Dead franchise is over as God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness stumbled around to a $2.7 million opening, which landed it in 12th. Not only did it spend Easter weekend getting walloped by I Can Only Imagine, it made less than Paul: Apostle of Christ did this weekend, even after it was battered last weekend. It even made less than Isle of Dogs, which was playing in a tenth as many theaters.
This weekend brings out the sex comedy Blockers, in which John Cena tries to prevent his daughter from losing her virginity on prom night, and the horror film A Quiet Place, where Emily Blunt and John Krasinski (who also directed) have to follow Elmer Fudd's advice to be vewy, vewy quiet, because monsters with exceptional hearing are hunting them. Also opening is Chappaquiddick, retelling what happened after Edward Kennedy drove off a bridge and killed a campaign staffer in 1969, and the volleyball drama The Miracle Season.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Apr 13, 2018 1:08:30 GMT -5
A Quiet Place was anything but over the weekend, as the low-budgeted horror flick, starring the husband-and-wife team of John Krasinski and Emily Blunt, roared to a $50.2 million opening. That's the biggest opening for an original horror film ever, and, as far as I can tell, the third biggest ever horror opening. It's also Paramount's biggest opening since Star Trek Beyond nearly 2 years ago.
Even with awful legs, Quiet should top $100 million, and could go significantly higher than that. If it follows the trajectory of Don't Breathe, another horror movie about people whose survival depends on silence, it could make it to $170 million. That seems a bit high to me, but then again, Get Out opened to $33.4 million and made $176 million, so $170 million is in the cards, though I think it will probably top out at around $150 million.
Holding strongly in second is Ready Player One, which had a relatively small drop to come in at $24.6 million. The drop is a bit deceiving, since it doesn't account for the $11.9 million it made on its opening Thursday, but even with that taken into consideration, Player had a decent hold. It was at $96.5 million after the weekend, and seems likely to finish between $140 million and $150 million--a disappointment, but hardly a disaster.
Opening in third is Blockers, the raunchy comedy headed by John Cena. The film rode warm reviews to a solid $20.6 million opening. If it has the same legs of the other R-rated comedy of the winter/spring, Game Night, that should get it to around $80 million, though I suspect it will likely finish closer to $70 million.
In fourth is Black Panther, finishing below $10 million for the weekend for the first time. It's $8.7 million take brought its overall total to $665.6 million, good enough to pass both Jurassic World and Titanic to become the third highest grossing film domestically of all time. $700 million is $35 million away, and falling below $10 million probably means Panther won't be able to amass the necessary sales. Still, its had an extraordinary run.
Also opening this weekend was the historical drama Chappaquiddick, which did better-than-expected business, but still opened in 7th with $5.8 million. Expanding nicely in 10th was Isle of Dogs, which went semi-wide this weekend, to the tune of $4.6 million. Meanwhile, The Miracle Season was anything but, as it opened in 11th with $4 million.
This weekend's big title will be Rampage, the Dwayne Johnson-starring adaption of an 80s video game that is opening on nearly as many screens as the tribute to 80s video games opened on two weeks ago. Possibly providing some competition is Truth or Dare, the latest from Blumhouse, which had quite the 2017 with Get Out, Split and Happy Death Day. We'll see if the trend can continue to 2018.
Also opening is the low-budget animated film Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero and the wide release of Isle of Dogs. Don't expect any new box office tricks from either film.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Apr 20, 2018 10:21:53 GMT -5
Rampage may have won the weekend, but all the noise was coming from A Quiet Place.
The latest video game adaption, Rampage had a fairly typical opening for a Dwayne Johnson vehicle, making $35.8 million. That's slightly more than Central Intelligence opened to in 2016, and slightly less than what Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle opened to last Christmas. Of course, Rampage will end up making much, much, much less than Jumanji. Indeed, Intelligence's $127.4 million seems way out of reach. Maybe the best comparison comes from Johnson's first starring vehicle from back in 2002, The Scorpion King, which opened to a surprisingly vigorous $36.1 million, but faded fast, thanks in part to the arrival of Spider-Man two weeks later, and ended up only grossing $91 million. With a film prominently featuring Spider-Man arriving next weekend, history could repeat itself.
A film that's not fading fast is A Quiet Place, which has gone past sleeper hit to just plain hit, and could end up being blockbuster hit by the time the noise has stopped. Quiet fell only 34.3% from its opening, a strong hold for any film, but downright incredible for a horror film. Its $33 million pushed it over $100 million already. Its second weekend drop was similar to Split's last year, and if it follows that film's trajectory, it could end up at $180 million. Avengers next weekend might put a damper on its earning power, but the film will be spectacularly profitable no matter how much more it has left in the tank.
Speaking of Blumhouse, the studio clearly didn't anticipate the popularity of A Quiet Place, or they wouldn't have opened Truth or Dare just a week later. Truth's $18.7 million opening isn't bad, but undoubtedly would have been higher if the potential audience wasn't busy flocking to the other film. Still, Truth was even cheaper than Quiet, and if the film tops out around $40 million, which seems likely, it will still have a nice return.
On the other end of the production cost scale, Ready Player One took in $11.5 million and ran its total to $114.9 million. It's not a flop, but not a huge hit, either. It will go down as the 2nd-highest grossing film released during the 1st quarter, though, so it will have that, at least.
Despite warm reviews, Blockers is failing to catch on, probably because the ads sold it as a raunchy American Pie from the adults' perspectives (fun way to make you feel old--this year's graduating seniors weren't even born when the first American Pie came out), and also because much of its potential audience is seeing A Quiet Place. It took in $10.8 million for a 10-day total of $37.4 million, and now seems unlikely to catch Game Night.
Black Panther continues to fade, as $700 million looks less and less likely (though the film will still sleep at night on top of a pile of money with many beautiful ladies). It made another $5.8 million, to bring its total to $674.2 million. Isle of Dogs had an OK expansion, with $5.5 million for a total of $18.9 million. It should be able to move past Fantastic Mr. Fox's $21 million this weekend, and is likely to top The Life Aquatic With Steve Zissou's $24 million by the end of its run as well.
At $75.2 million so far, I Can Only Imagine isn't likely to top $100 million, and probably won't even beat out Heaven Is For Real's $91.4 million, but I'm pretty sure no one thought it would easily outgross both Tomb Raider and Pacific Rim: Uprising, both of which are now well outside the Top 10. Acrimony is fading like a typical Tyler Perry movie, but at $37.8 million, it will turn a nice profit. At $11 million after ten days, Chappaquiddick probably won't.
Outside the top 10, the lightly advertised Beirut opened to $1.7 million. It should do a bit better than Rosemund Pike's other film in the last month about Middle East terrorism of the recent past, 7 Days in Entebbe, which finished its short run with $3.2 million and has already been forgotten. Meanwhile, the animated Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero took in $1.2 million, in a theatrical release that seems designed purely to give the film name recognition for when it pops up in Redboxes in a couple of months.
This weekend is the calm before the storm, as the biggest newcomer is the Amy Schumer comedy I Feel Pretty, which, given Schumer's popularity just a couple of years ago, is having a surprisingly quiet release. Also opening is the latest many-years-later sequel, Super Troopers 2, and the thriller Traffik. Unless Pretty proves more popular than expected, expect A Quiet Place to roar back to #1.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Apr 26, 2018 10:18:30 GMT -5
Some interesting stuff was happening just below the surface, but for the most part, it was a pretty dull weekend, which is why it was appropriate for a film named A Quiet Place to be #1.
The smash hit horror thriller returned to the top spot with $20.9 million, bringing its total to $131.3 million. After 17 days, last year's two smash hit low-budget horror flicks, Split and Get Out, had earned 71% and 63% respectively of their final grosses. Assuming that Quiet Place tracks closer to Split, that suggests a final gross of between $180 and $190 million. A track closer to Get Out, though, would mean a final gross of around $210 million. I suspect it will be closer to the lower total because of the impending arrival of summer movies, which might hurt Quiet Place's legs. That said, even $180 million would make this a huge, huge win for all involved.
In second is Rampage, which held up much better than I thought. It fell only 44% for a second weekend gross of $20.1 million, bringing its total to $65.7 million. At this point, it is now ahead of where The Scorpion King was after ten days and seems likely to break $100 million after all. We'll just ignore that, even adjusted for inflation, Rampage is much more expensive than The Scorpion King, and that $100 million in 2018 is significantly less than $91 million in 2002.
I Feel Pretty had an OK opening for third, grossing $16 million. Pretty actually fell slightly from Friday to Saturday, an ominous sign. Even if survives this weekend, May is surprisingly loaded with female driven and aimed films, such as Overboard, Life of the Party, and Book Club. That could mean that Pretty's time in the spotlight is going to be pretty short.
Speaking of frontloading, Super Troopers 2 was the #1 movie in America on Friday. It finished 4th for the weekend. It had already earned more than half of its weekend take by the end of the day on Friday. Unfortunately, Box Office Mojo doesn't have a list of most frontloaded movies, but the comparison that comes to mind is the 2009 remake of Friday the 13th, which which made nearly 30% of its final gross on its opening night, which just happened to be a Friday the 13th. And even it held up much better going from Friday to Saturday.
That said, Trooper's weekend haul of $15.2 million is roughly twice what even the most optimistic projections for the weekend were predicting. And even if it isn't even able to double its opening gross, it will still be very profitable. We might not have to wait another 16 years for Super Troopers 3.
Truth or Dare preformed like a typical horror movie, falling nearly 60% during week 2, taking in $7.8 million for a total of $30.3 million. Still, worst case for this film will be a final gross 10 times production costs, so this will be a very profitable film.
Ready Player One is now up to $126.1 million. Blockers is at $48.1 million and seems unlikely to catch Game Night (though it too will turn a nice profit). Black Panther is now up to $681.4 million.
Opening in ninth was Traffik, a poorly reviewed thriller, which $3.9 million. Rounding out the Top 10 is Isle of Dogs, which is now at $24.4 million and is likely heading toward an Oscar nomination for Animated Feature next year.
On Friday, the Indian action film Bharat Ane Nenu looked poised to make the Top 10. Instead, it proved to be even more front-loaded than Super Troopers 2, and finished 11th with $2.7 million. Still, it had a higher per-screen than any movie in the Top 10.
This weekend has only one new opening: Avengers: Infinity War. For comparisons sake, The Avengers opened to $10.3 million and finished with $23.4 million. I, of course, am talking about the ill-fated 1998 movie remake of the cult 60s British secret agent show. The MCU Avengers was the first film to make more than $200 million in one weekend, taking in $207.4 million back the first weekend of May 2012. Three years later, Avengers: Age of Ultron proved to be a bit of a disappointment, opening to "only" $191.3 million. A year later, Captain America: Civil War, widely seen as Avengers 2.5, opened to $179.1 million. In the last year, the MCU movies have opened to $146.5 million (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2), $117 million (Spider-Man: Homecoming), $122.7 million (Thor: Ragnarok), and $202 million (Black Panther). The latter is the number that Disney undoubtedly has its eye on for this weekend.
Whether it tops $200 million or not, Avengers: Infinity War will almost certainly be the #2 film of 2018 by the end of the weekend (current #2 is A Quiet Place). Disney will own 9 of the top 10 openings of all time after this weekend as well, as Infinity will almost certainly outgross what is currently the 10th best opening ever, the $169.2 million opening of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 back in 2011 (which, once upon a time, was the best opening ever. The one remaining non-Disney title in the Top 10 will be Jurassic World). Infinity War is going to be big. Just how big is anyone's guess.
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Post by MarkInTexas on May 2, 2018 17:13:05 GMT -5
When Star Wars: The Force Awakens opened to $247.7 million back in December 2015, I assumed that record would stand for a long, long time. Star Wars was the most popular film series of all time, and this was the first one in over ten years. What could possibly top the excitement generated by that release?
As it turns out, the first MCU movie in 2 1/2 months.
Of course, Avengers: Infinity War is just a tad more than the latest MCU movie. It was always going to open very, very big, and as we grew closer to the release date, it became clear it was going to open very, very, very, very big. Still, its final weekend gross of $257.7 million was bigger than even the most optimistic estimates, shattering The Force Awakens's record by $10 million.
So, with the biggest opening of all time, will Infinity War become the biggest domestic film of all time? That seems considerably doubtful. One reason is that MCU sequels don't have very good legs. If Infinity War follows the track of Avengers: Age of Ultron, it will top out around $620 million, enough to land in the All-Time Top 10, but not enough to even get past the original Avengers from 2012. If it ends up with similar legs to Captain America: Civil War, it might not even make it to $600 million.
I think it will have better staying power than those two films, because Infinity War feels more like an event than those two films. But there's another, more important factor that will limit the grosses of Avengers: the release date.
The Force Awakens opened on December 18, just as nearly every school was letting out for winter break and as numerous adult workers were taking at least a few days off. The film took full advantage of all those people with all that extra free time, putting up a staggering 17 straight days with grosses of at least $20 million. Star Wars made so much money so fast that it passed Avatar after less than three weeks of release (by comparison, it took Avatar 47 days to pass Titanic).
The Monday and Tuesday gross of Avengers has been impressive--its $24.7 million on Monday and its $23.4 million on Tuesday were the highest amounts earned on those days when most schools were in session--but they are far, far below what Force Awakens made on its first Monday and Tuesday. Indeed, day-by-day comparisons show that Force grabbed the lead back away from Avengers on Monday, and now has a $20 million lead. Expect the lead to be much, much wider before all is said and done. Avengers: Infinity War will make a staggering amount of money. It just won't be Force Awakens money, or probably Avatar money, or even Black Panther money.
Other movies were out, though those were mostly ignored (Avengers made 82% of the money earned over the weekend). A Quiet Place managed to put up $11 million, a solid amount for any film in its fourth weekend of release, much less a horror movie facing a juggernaut. I Feel Pretty stayed in third, with $8.2 million. The huge drop I expected last weekend for Rampage happened this weekend, as it fell to $7.2 million.
Black Panther, weirdly, only fell 4% to take in $4.8 million, enough for 5th. I'm assuming it was taken in by people who either couldn't get Avengers tickets and decided they wanted to watch a Marvel film, or wanted to make an MCU theatrical double feature. It's now at $688.4 million. Meanwhile, Super Troopers 2 fell 75%--which is what it probably would have fallen, Avengers or no Avengers--to $3.7 million, but that was enough to pass Super Troopers 1.
A couple of films opened well on the art house circuit. The lesbian drama Disobedience, starring Rachel Weisz and Rachel McAdams, opened to $288,437 on 5 screens, and the French comedy/drama Let the Sunshine in, starring Juliette Binoche, opened to $39,699 on 2 screens. Under normal circumstances, it will be hard to see a film playing nationwide beating those per-screen numbers. But this weekend, a film opened to over $250 million.
Avengers should have little trouble dominating what was originally supposed to be its opening weekend, as none of the three films originally scheduled to open in April that scrambled here after Avengers moved will be on more than 2,000 screens. Bad Samaritan stars David Tennant as a man with a very dark secret trying to track down the cat burglar who broke into his fancy house and discovered said very dark secret. Overboard is a gender-switched remake of the well-remembered 1987 comedy, starring Eugenio Derbez as a party-hearty billionaire who falls off his yacht and gets amnesia, and Anna Faris as the poor single mom he stiffed that claims him as her missing husband. Tully reunites the Young Adult team of director Jason Reitman, screenwriter Diablo Cody, and star Charlize Theron, who plays a stressed-out new mom who bonds with her new nanny. All of them should finish far, far, far back of Avengers.
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Post by MarkInTexas on May 3, 2018 10:30:34 GMT -5
Back in the 90s, the now-defunct Premiere Magazine used to predict what the top 20 films of the summer would be. More recently, Box Office Mojo used to try to predict how much the season's top blockbusters would make. I'm not nearly that bold, but I am going to group the 44 films that, as of today, Box Office Mojo lists as going wide between tomorrow and the end of August in three categories: Over $200 million, $100 million-$200 million, and Under $100 million. I'll revisit this in a few months and see how my predictive powers worked out.
The films will be listed alphabetically in each category, and the categories reflect domestic box office predictions only.
Over $200 Million
Deadpool 2
The Incredibles 2
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Solo: A Star Wars Story
$100 Million-$200 Million
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Christopher Robin
Crazy Rich Asians
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
Life of the Party
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!
The Meg
Mission: Impossible--Fallout
Ocean's 8
Skyscraper
The Spy Who Dumped Me
Under $100 Million
Action Point
Adrift
Alpha
AXL
Bad Samaritan
Book Club
Breaking In
The Darkest Minds
Dog Days
The Equalizer 2
The First Purge
The Happytime Murders
Hereditary
The Hustle
Kin
Mile 22
Overboard
Replecas
Sanju
Searching
Show Dogs
Sicario: Day of the Soldado
Slender Man
Superfly
Tag
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Three Seconds
Tully
Uncle Drew
Last summer, 43 movies ended up going wide, with 4 making over $200 million, and 8 making between $100 million and $200 million. So I'm thinking the middle class will be a bit more robust this year.
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Post by MarkInTexas on May 9, 2018 17:16:10 GMT -5
It was good news/bad news for Avengers: Infinity War over the weekend, assuming that you can call a movie on track to finish as one of the five biggest domestic films in history "bad news". Maybe good news/not-quite-as-good news.
Avengers, of course, won its second weekend handidly, taking in another $114.8 million, to run its 10-day total to $453.1 million. Only 15 other movies in history have made more than $453.1 million in their entire runs. It has the second-best 10-day total ever, and the second-best second weekend ever (both behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens). All this isn't even counting international. The folks at Disney and Marvel are undoubtedly very very happy.
And yet..of the six movies that have opened above $200 million, Infinity War suffered the second-worst second weekend drop, falling 55.5%. What that means for its future prospects, I'm not sure. If it follows the tranjectory of its fellow $200-million openers, it could land at over $700 million, possibly even challenging Avatar for 2nd all-time. If it follows the path of Avengers: Age of Ultron and Captain America: Civil War, it could end up in the mid-$600 millions. Since it had a better hold than either of those two films, I'm suspecting it will split the difference and finish in Black Panther territory, around $700 million.
Opening strongly in second is Overboard, the gender-flipped remake of the 80s classic, with Anna Faris taking the Kurt Russell role as a poor single parent and Eugenio Derbez replacing Goldie Hawn as the obnoxious billionaire with amnesia. Its $14.7 million opening suggests that Lionsgate left money on the table by only opening it in 1,623 theaters. Derbez's How to Be a Latin Lover opened a to a couple million less than Overboard did and finished with $32.1 million. Ten years ago, Faris's breakout hit, The House Bunny, opened similarly to Overboard, and made it to $48.2 million. I'm guessing that Overboard will split the difference and finish around $40 million.
A Quiet Place continues to make noise in 3rd, taking in another $7.8 million to run its total to $160.1 million. At this point, $200 million, always a long shot, is off the table, but it should at least equal Get Out's $176 million. I Feel Pretty came in 4th with $5.1 million, running its total to $38 million. It should be able to pass Snatched's $45.9 million by the end of its run.
Rampage came in 5th, with $4.6 million. At $84.8 million, it seems unlikely at this point to make it to $100 million. Opening in 6th with $3.3 million is Tully, starring Charlize Theron as a mom suffering from post-natal depression. It might have benefited from a more limited release.
Black Panther spent its 12th week of release in 7th place, earning another $3.3 million. Its total gross now stands at $693.2 million. It has now equaled the run of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, and should have at least one more weekend in the Top 10. Rounding out the top 10 are Truth or Dare, Super Troopers 2, and Blockers, all heading to the end of their profitable, if underwhelming, runs.
Opening in 11th is the David Tennant thriller Bad Samaritan, which for some reason was the widest release of the weekend. Samaritan pulled off the rare feat of being a wide release movie that can't break $1,000 per screen its opening weekend. If you want to see the film, better hurry, since its likely to be down to one or two showtimes a day as for Friday, and be completely gone by next Friday. Performing well in limited release is the documentary RBG, about beloved Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, which opened in 15th with over $500,000 on 34 screens.
Two major new movies, both about mothers to take advantage of Mother's Day, open on Friday. Neither is likely to challenge Avengers for the top spot, but both should do well. Life of the Party stars Melissa McCarthy, in her first film in nearly 2 years, as a recent divorcee who decides to go back to school--at the college her daughter is attending.
Hijinks ensure. This is directed by McCarthy's husband, Ben Falcone, who previously directed his wife in Tammy and The Boss. Both those films underperformed, but I suspect this will do better, both because of the PG-13 rating and because, unlike the deeply eccentric characters McCarthy played in those prior movies, in this one, she appears to be playing someone relatively normal.
The other major opening is Breaking In, a Panic Room-esque thriller starring Gabrielle Union as a woman who takes her kids to her late father's isolated, fortified house for the weekend, only to be besieged by a gang, wanting the fortune in cash hidden somewhere inside. These types of African-American driven thrillers have done very well in other parts of the year, and there's no reason to think this one won't do well, either. At the very least, it should do far better than the thematically-similar Traffik, which opened three weeks ago and has already been forgotten.
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Post by MarkInTexas on May 16, 2018 17:13:54 GMT -5
Avengers: Infinity War had another terrific weekend, taking in another $62.1 million. That's the fourth highest 3rd weekend box office ever, behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Avatar, and Black Panther. Speaking of Panther, Avenger is now less than $150 million behind.
At this point, it is highly likely that Avengers will pass Titanic for 4th domestic all-time, and won't catch up to #2 Avatar. So that leaves the question of whether it can catch stablemate Panther. Panther had smaller weekend drops, and has now passed Avengers in weekend-to-weekend comparisons. Still, Avengers opened to a whopping $55 million more than Panther, and that head start could ultimately power it past Panther. Avengers 17-day total is $48 million ahead of Panther's 17-day total. However, Avengers is about to experience turbulence. In its 4th and 5th weekends, Panther was lucky enough to go against two massive underperformers in A Wrinkle in Time and Tomb Raider. Avengers will be facing off against Deadpool 2 and Solo, two films that will open well north of $100 million. Panther earned $40.8 in its 4th weekend. If Avengers is off that total by more than $10 million, I think Panther will be safe at #3.
Disappointing at #2 is Life of the Party, which opened to $17.9 million. That is easily the worst opening of a Melissa McCarthy star vehicle. Best case scenario for the film is around $70 million. Worst case, if it follows the trajectory of The Boss, would be around $50 million. This is probably a good time for a change of pace. Luckily, her next two movies are the quirky-sounding mystery The Happytime Murders and the drama Can You Ever Forgive Me?.
In third is the thriller Breaking In, which opened to $17.6 million. That's not bad, but its off of what similar thrillers No Good Deed and The Perfect Guy opened to. Thrillers aimed at African-American women tend to burn out quickly, so it's likely that Breaking In will finish somewhere around $40 million.
Overboard held up nicely in 4th, taking in $9.9 million in its second weekend. It's 10-day total is $29.4 million, and it seems to be sailing toward $50 million. A Quiet Place took in $6.5 million for 5th, bringing its total to $169.6 million. It could pass Get Out by next weekend.
I Feel Pretty made $3.8 million, and should pass Snatched this week. Rampage made $3.5 million and inches closer toward $100 million. Tully moves toward awaiting its rediscovery on a streaming service by taking in $2.3 million.
Black Panther spent its 13th and likely final weekend in the Top 10 in 9th, taking in another $2.1 million. It's current gross stands at $696.3 million. It's release on DVD and PPV will likely hamper it getting that last $3.7 million. Its run ties the runs of Zootopia and La La Land as the second-longest Top 10 run of films released this decade. Only Frozen, with 16 weeks in the Top 10, lasted longer.
Moving into 10th place, despite only playing at 179 theaters, is the documentary RBG. That's the smallest screen count for a film in the Top 10 since Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri made it on only 53 screens the weekend before Thanksgiving. Its total is $2 million.
Three major openings hit theaters this weekend. Deadpool 2 is very likely to take the top spot from Avengers, but Josh Brolin won't be relinquishing his spot as the villain of the #1 movie in America. In Deadpool, he'll be playing Cable, a mutant from the future determined to terminate a young mutant, and Deadpool has to serve as the kid's Kyle Reese. The first Deadpool opened to $132.4 million in February 2015, the biggest opening for an R-rated film. Given the first film's popularity, expect Deadpool 2 to open even higher.
Book Club appears to be the female version of those "Geezers Rediscover Life!" movies that always seem to star Morgan Freeman. He's not in this one, but the cast is still impressive, as Jane Fonda, Diane Keaton, Mary Steenburgen, and Candice Bergen play the members of the titular group, who find their libidos reawakened after reading Fifty Shades of Grey. The lucky men on the receiving end are played by Craig T. Nelson, Richard Dreyfuss, Andy Garcia, and Don Johnson, whose daughter Dakota is the female lead in the Fifty Shades movie (and I'll just leave that tidbit right there).
Show Dogs appears to be what happens when someone gets the bright idea of mashing up Best in Show and Miss Congeniality. The film stars the voice of Chris "Ludicris" Bridges as a tough police dog who has to go undercover in a prestigious dog show to sniff out a gang of animal smugglers. At least Bridges got to stay in a recording booth. Will Arnett, playing the dog's human partner, had to actually appear on camera, and he looks vaguely embarrassed throughout the trailer. Hopefully, the free trip to Vegas was worth it. Speaking of Vegas, I'm going to assume its just a coincidence that the title of this family film evokes another Vegas-set movie from 23 years ago, one that was decidedly not for the kiddies.
Interesting titles opening in limited release include First Reformed, On Chesil Beach, and Pope Francis: A Man of His Word. We'll see how all the newcomers do next weekend.
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Post by MarkInTexas on May 24, 2018 14:07:52 GMT -5
To no one's surprise, Deadpool 2 came alive this weekend, opening to $125.5 million. That's the second-highest opening for an R-rated film ever, edging last fall's opening of It. That's an outstanding opening...but not quite as outstanding as expected, since it fell short of the biggest opening of an R-rated film, namely the first Deadpool, which opened in February 2016 to $132.4 million.
Given that sequels almost always burn out faster than the originals, it seems highly unlikely that DP2 will be able to top the original's final $363.1 million. Worst case senario, should Solo take a really big bite this weekend, is a final domestic gross of under $300 million. Things are unlikely to be that dire, but for a film that seemed like a possible $400 million-grosser, a final gross around It's $327.5 will make it seem like a bit of an underachiever.
As expected, in the skirmish between James Brolin comic book antagonists, Cable wins this battle, while Thanos will handily win the war. However, I don't think anyone expected that Cable would be able to snap his fingers and make half of Avengers: Infinity War's weekly grosses dissolve. War fell over 52%, to $29.5 million in its fourth weekend, and its total stands at $595.8 million. Avengers is coming back to Earth far more rapidly than Black Panther, which made $40.8 million in its fourth weekend. However, thanks to its huge opening, War still has a nearly $35 million lead on Panther's 4th weekend overall gross. The weekly gaps between Avengers and Panther at the same point in their runs is likely only going to get smaller from here.
Opening in third was Book Club, which took in $13.6 million. Despite having the best reviews of the four recent female-driven comedies, it has the smallest opening of the quartet. Still, the film's demographic skews older than I Feel Pretty, Overboard, or Life of the Party, and that group doesn't necessarily make going to see a movie opening weekend a priority. It's likely that Book Club will hold up better than the other three in the weeks to come.
Speaking of Life of the Party, it was anything but this weekend, as it fell nearly 60% to $7.6 million. The Melissa McCarthy vehicle has only earned $30.9 million after ten days, and is on track to earn less than $50 million. Lucky for her that much buzzed about, very NSFW trailer for her hard-R puppet comedy noir, The Happytime Murders (which appears to be Avenue Q with less singing and more violence--that's not necessarily a bad thing), dropped this week.
In 5th, Breaking In fell even worse than Life of the Party, falling to $6.8 million, with a total so far of $29.1 million. Opening in 6th was Best in Show/Miss Congeniality mashup Show Dogs, which, despite being the only family film in release, could only earn $6 million.
Overboard came in 7th, with $4.6 million, and looks to be heading to around $45 million. A Quiet Place came in 8th, with $3.9 million. It's total stands at $176.1 million. In 9th was Rampage, which is now highly unlikely to make it to $100 million. It currently stands at $92.5 million. Super Troopers 2 rounded out the Top 10, moving to $29.2 million and is just $1.2 million away from being able to double its opening weekend gross.
Falling out of the Top 10 after 13 weeks, and falling under $1 million in weekend grosses for the first time, is Black Panther, which was in 13th this weekend with $860,000. It's now $2.2 million away from $700 million. If this was 20 years ago, I'd expect it to easily make that amount and more in it's discount theater run. In 2018, where the film is already available on DVD and PPV, that last amount might be a tall order.
This Memorial Day weekend sees only one new release, Solo: A Star Wars Story. Reviews have been mixed, and the release has prompted a lot of articles about the film's famously troubled production, where original directors Chris Lord and Phil Miller were fired while the film was shooting and replaced with Ron Howard. Solo should still have no problem outgrossing the opening weekend--and indeed the entire run--of Solo, the 1996 cyborg soldier actioner that starred Mario Van Peebles. Indeed, it probably has already passed the 1996 film's final $5.1 million final gross on presales alone. Solo's real competition is Rogue One, which opened to $155.1 million the weekend before Christmas, 2016. I expect Solo to beat that, but I also thought Deadpool 2 would outgross Deadpool 1, so what do I know? We'll find out after the holiday.
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