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Post by sarapen on Apr 5, 2019 13:42:50 GMT -5
Most likely, but the film has made $400 million worldwide. That could be enough to justify a sequel, especially if they're able to wrestle the budget down. Yeah, this guy from Forbes says Fox or Disney might make a sequel to essentially do Cameron a solid, or perhaps crap out another potential franchise, but that it's best to hedge one's bets. Right now I'm gonna assume there's no sequel and if there is then I'll be pleasantly surprised. |
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Post by Ben Grimm on Apr 5, 2019 14:35:59 GMT -5
Most likely, but the film has made $400 million worldwide. That could be enough to justify a sequel, especially if they're able to wrestle the budget down. Yeah, this guy from Forbes says Fox or Disney might make a sequel to essentially do Cameron a solid, or perhaps crap out another potential franchise, but that it's best to hedge one's bets. Right now I'm gonna assume there's no sequel and if there is then I'll be pleasantly surprised. It's about what Pacific Rim did, and it got a sequel. Granted, the sequel wasn't especially good, and did a good bit worse than the original. |
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Post by MarkInTexas on Apr 8, 2019 11:52:09 GMT -5
If James Cameron calls up Disneyith Century Fox and says "I really want to do Alita 2", I bet they'll greenlight Alita 2, though they might require either him to direct it himself or go with a no-name director (Robert Rodriguez probably got a pretty nice paycheck). They'd probably also want to keep the budget down, though the first film itself probably helped in terms of cast salaries, since it killed off Mahershala Ali and Jennifer Connelly. If they really want to cut salaries, they could replace Edward Norton as the Big Bad and restrict Christoph Waltz to a cameo . Barring that, it probably needs to develop a cult around it over the next year or so. Pacific Rim didn't make a ton of money, especially compared to its budget, but it did have a passionate fanbase. If MouseFox can see a similar thing happening with Alita, a second part might just happen, albeit again with a lower budget. |
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Post by MarkInTexas on Apr 11, 2019 16:20:23 GMT -5
As expected Shazam!, which started life nearly 80 years ago as a Superman ripoff named Captain Marvel, easily dominated the box office in its opening weekend, though its gross proved to be no threat to Superman or the current Captain Marvel. The film took in a solid $53.5 million. When preview screenings from March are factored in, No Longer Captain Marvel has grossed $56.8 million.
Also opening solidly, though not outstandingly, is the remake of Pet Sematary, which raised $24.5 million. That should lead to a final gross of around $50-60 million, which is what the original film did back in 1989 (in 1989 dollars). We'll see if that's enough for a largely unrelated sequel in three years.
The arrival of the relatively family-friendly Shazam! proved disastrous for Dumbo, which lost altitude to $18.2 million in its second weekend. Its 10-day total is a disappointing $76.3 million. The film should still head north of $100 million, but probably not much farther.
Also falling hard, thanks to Pet Sematary, is Us, which took in another $13.8 million. That brings its total to $152.4 million. $200 million, which seemed like a given last week, is not not nearly as assured. Surprisingly$, despite another superhero movie in release, Captain Marvel held up decently from last week, taking in $12.4 million for a gross of $373.9 million.
Debuting in sixth is failed Oscar bait The Best of Enemies, which ended up getting exiled to April, instead of more award-friendly late fall/early winter release. The drama debuted to only $4.5 million, or just slightly less than what Green Book made on its 16th weekend of release.
Rounding out the Top 10 are Five Feet Apart, which continues its better-than-expected run with $3.6 million for a total of $41.5 million, anti-abortion drama Unplanned, which added over 450 theaters and still dropped by half, to $3.3 million for a total of $12.6 million, animated disappointment Wonder Park, which made $2.2 million for $42.1 million, and higher-grossing animated disappointment How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, with $2 million for $156.7 million.
Four new movies go wide this weekend, three of which have a legitimate shot of knocking off Shazam! The widest opening is Missing Link, the latest from stop-motion studio Laika, which produces high-quality films (5-for-5 for Oscar nominations for Animated Feature) that don't attract big crowds (the studio's highest-grossing film, Coraline, topped out at $75.3 million). Missing Link seems to be going more for comedy than Laika's other features, which might help juice the grosses. Also opening is Hellboy, a reboot that subs out Ron Perlman and director Guillermo del Toro in favor of David Harbour and Decent director Neil Marshall. It also subs out the original's PG-13 for an R. Neither of del Toro's Hellboys were exactly hits, but they were generally well-received. We'll see if the new one will be as well.
Meanwhile, from its title on, Little does not hide the fact its Big in reverse, as Regina Hall plays a tyrannical businesswoman who wakes up one morning in her old pre-teen body (and now played by Marsai Martin), while her long-suffering assistant (Issa Rae) finds herself having to be her guardian. Finally, the one movie that has no shot at the top spot is After, an overheated melodrama about a "good" girl who goes off to college and immediately falls for the campus bad boy, who we know is bad because he wears a lot of black and has tattoos, but otherwise looks about as threatening as a glass of milk. This one looks to appear to 12-to-15-year-old girls, and nobody else. Meanwhile, we'll be seeing if this weekend provides what's missing for Link, or if it will be heaven for Hellboy, or if Little will be big, or if Shazam! will soar again above all.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Apr 17, 2019 16:37:45 GMT -5
Despite 4 new wide releases, it was a quiet weekend at the box office, as none of the new films were top draw attractions. Instead, it felt like Hollywood was in a holding pattern, awaiting the arrival of Hurricane Endgame at the end of the month.
Shazam! topped the box office for the second straight weekend, earning $24.5 million for a ten-day total of $94.2 million. The superhero comedy should hit $100 million before next weekend, and could very well be at $120 million by the time Endgame arrives.
Opening solidly in second is the comedy Little, which didn't need a big opening, since it only cost $20 million to make. Therefore, producers should be happy with its $15.4 million opening. With solid word-of-mouth, this one has a good shot as working as counterprogramming and could be heading for a final gross north of $50 million.
By contrast, the more expensive (but still not that expensive) Hellboy had anything but a heavenly opening, taking in $12.1 million. In contrast, the Perlman/Del Toro films opened to $23.2 million and $34.5 million. Both of those films burned out very quickly, so don't expect the Harbour/Marshall one to do much more than $30 million, if that much. Foreign totals should nudge this into profitability, though.
Pet Sematary had a typical horror movie fall, as the Stephen King adaption took in $9.8 million for a hare-raising $40.9 million after ten days. The film is still on track to make between $50 and $60 million.
Dumbo continues to vastly underperform the other Disney animated adaptions, as Tim Burton's re-imagining continues to fall to earth with $9.4 million and a total of $90.2 million. It should be over $100 million by the time studio mate Endgame arrives, but other than Christopher Robin and Pete's Dragon (one of which was essentially a sequel, the other of which was not based on a fully animated film), this will be by far the lowest of Disney's live-action versions.
In sixth, Captain Marvel continues to soar, taking in another $8.6 million to fly its total to $386.5 million. It should be past $400 million in the next couple of weeks. In seventh, Us continues to fade fast, taking in $6.8 million for a total of $163.4 million. At this point, the film is likely to fall short of $200 million.
In 8th is the One Direction fanfic adaption After, which opened better than expected with $6 million, mostly from teenage girls. Of course, when you open to $6 million, "better" is a relative term, and After should burn out faster than One Direction did as a group, most likely finishing under $15 million total.
In 9th comes the latest PG flop, Missing Link, which went missing an audience with an opening of $6 million. This is easily the worst wide-release animated opening since the barely-promoted Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero opened to $1.2 million. This one, like After, looks destined to finish under $15 million.
Rounding out the top ten is the largely ignored The Best of Enemies, which took in $2 million for a ten-day total of $8.1 million.
Easter is rarely a weekend that sees big releases, and with Endgame looming just on the horizon, this year's Easter offering seems especially small, though one, if not two new titles should be able to outgross Shazam! One of them is Breakthrough, which follows in the footsteps of Heaven is For Real and Miracles From Heaven as a Christian film starring well-known mainstream, secular actors about a sick child miraculously healed by God. This time, the cast includes One Day at a Time's Marcel Ruiz as the sick kid, Josh Lucas and This Is Us's Chrissy Metz as his parents, Topher Grace as the local pastor, and Dennis Haysbert as a doctor. Given the holiday, the cast, and that it's been over a year since I Can Only Imagine, the last breakout Christian title, expect Breakout to beat out Shazam! this weekend.
But it might not be #1. That honor could go to the R-rated The Curse of La Llorona, which is targeting the underserved Hispanic market. If Hispanic audiences turn out in solid numbers, that should be enough to knock past Shazam! and maybe even Breakthrough, even with the glut of R-rated horror out right now.
The third opening is Disney's documentary Penguins, as the studio has decided enough time has passed since March of the Penguins that a penguin documentary could be seen again as fresh. With this weekend looking rather bleak, Penguins might be able to find a spot in the top 5 with a gross of between $4 and $6 million. We'll see to which film the Easter Beagle will be delivering colorful eggs this weekend, and to which he'll be pelting rotten ones at.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Apr 24, 2019 15:57:08 GMT -5
Over a relatively slow Easter weekend that undoubtedly serves as the calm before the storm, The Curse of La Llorona cast a spell over the box office, resulting in a bigger-than-expected opening and an easy weekend win. The horror title cannily played to the undeserved Hispanic film market, which helped propel it to a $26.3 million opening, or more than the "name-brand" Pet Sematary opened to two weeks ago. Still, one can't help but wonder if Warner Bros. left money on the table by not explicitly making it clear in its marketing that this film is part of the Conjuring Universe. After all, The Nun opened last fall to roughly twice Curse's gross.
Coming in second is Shazam!, which continues its strong run with $16.5 million, for a total gross of $120.4 million. The superhero comedy probably benefited by most kids being out of school Friday, as well as people getting ready for the much bigger superhero movie arriving this weekend.
Opening in third is the Christian drama Breakthrough, which didn't quite break through the way its makers wanted, but still opened with a respectable $11.3 million. Its five-day total since opening last Wednesday is $14.8 million. That means it will undoubtedly be the highest-grossing Christian film since I Can Only Imagine last year, but its final gross is likely to fall short of not only Imagine's, but also the final grosses of such films as Heaven is For Real and Miracles From Heaven.
Coming in fourth is Captain Marvel, which actually saw an increase in grosses from last weekend, despite losing a handful of theaters. Assuming that jump is legitimate, it gives Marvel a gross of $9.1 million, which is just enough to nudge it past the $400 million mark, just ahead of the arrival of the Avengers (and Captain Marvel again). That's the type of thing that tends to happen to Disney titles as they approach big round numbers, but that repeating coincidence is none of my business [turns into Kermit the Frog, sips tea].
Coming in 5th is Little, which didn't hold up all that well as it slid to $8.3 million, with a ten-day gross of $29.3 million. In 6th is Dumbo, which flew past the $100 million mark with $6.6 million. The aforementioned Pet Sematary came in 7th, with $4.9 million, for a gross of $49.6 million.
Us continues its fast fade, earning $4.2 million in 8th for $170.3 million. Not only is $200 million now out of the question, it seems unlikely to reach A Quiet Place's $188 million. Missing Link held up slightly better than expected, discovering $4.2 million--good enough for 9th and a ten-day gross of $12.8 million. Hellboy collapsed in its second weekend, grossing just $4 million and a ten-day gross of $19.8 million.
After After, whose grosses also moved in one direction--down, comes the week's other wide release. Disney's Penguins waddled off with a dismal $2.3 million, the worst opening of any of Disney's nature documentaries. Its five-day gross stands at $3.2 million, which probably dooms it to become the first one of Mickey's new nature docs to finish under $10 million.
This weekend only has one wide release, a tiny little art house flick called Avengers: Endgame. That it is going to open north of $250 million is a given. The question is: how much higher? Infinity War last year opened to $257.7 million, and with Endgame seemingly poised to be the widest release of all time, that should help make up for the fact that the three-hour runtime will limit the number of shows each screen can show. Some are suggesting that Endgame could top $300 million. I don't think it will be anywhere near that huge, but an opening north of $260 million--maybe even approaching $270 million--is very doable. We'll find out how everything snaps into place, box office-wise, next weekend
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Post by oppy all along on Apr 24, 2019 18:57:03 GMT -5
Anecdata here, but I showed up to the cinemas on Easter Monday to watch Captain Marvel and was informed that the session was sold out. I think it's a combination of holiday weekend and people being really fucking hyped for Endgame - Disney's used their last two Avengers movies to prop up single hero movies that are still in cinemas when the Avengers come out. I would predict that Captain Marvel remains close to level this weekend and hangs in the top 5. If you look at the box office from the weekend before Infinity War comes out and the weekend after, Black Panther holds basically level while Infinity War bludgeons everything else to 50%+ drops. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2019 7:33:17 GMT -5
Anecdata here, but I showed up to the cinemas on Easter Monday to watch Captain Marvel and was informed that the session was sold out. I think it's a combination of holiday weekend and people being really fucking hyped for Endgame - Disney's used their last two Avengers movies to prop up single hero movies that are still in cinemas when the Avengers come out. I would predict that Captain Marvel remains close to level this weekend and hangs in the top 5. If you look at the box office from the weekend before Infinity War comes out and the weekend after, Black Panther holds basically level while Infinity War bludgeons everything else to 50%+ drops. Huh, I went to Captain Marvel this past saturday and the theater wasn't close to full. I did expect it to be more sold out as we were only one week away from endgame. I still am with you on thinking it will hold steady, but I was surprised at how my theater wasn't even half full. |
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Post by MarkInTexas on Apr 26, 2019 10:32:53 GMT -5
Endgame update: It opened to $60 million last night, the most ever from Thursday night previews. To put that in prospective, only two films in 2019 have had full weekend openings above $60 million. Only 10 2019 films have even grossed more than $60 million.
That said, I still think it's going to finish under $300 million domestic for the weekend. I'm going to guess $275-280 million at this point, though I reserve the right to adjust my numbers once the Friday numbers come in.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Apr 29, 2019 11:45:35 GMT -5
I'll have much more to say in a couple of days, but while I definitely underestimated how huge Endgame would be, so did everyone else. I have to think we might have seen the upper limits of just how many people could be stuffed into multiplexes coast-to-coast in one 3 1/2 day period.
To put these numbers in prospective, Avengers: Endgame is the 50th highest grossing movie of all time. Already. It has already outgrossed The Lord of the Ring: The Two Towers, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part I, Aquaman (and every other film in the DCU except Wonder Woman), Spider-Man: Homecoming (and all but 8 of the other MCU films), Forrest Gump, all Harry Potter films except Deathly Hallows Part II, all the Shrek movies except Shrek 2, 5 of the 7 Transformers movies, every James Bond movie, every Twilight movie, and all but 4 of the 20 Pixar movies.
Endgame now has a $102 million lead over Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Force's first week was the week before Christmas, and it took full advantage of that, making $143 million from Monday to Thursday that week alone. With kids still in school and adults at work this week, I don't think Endgame will be able to put up those numbers. But I don't think it will be that far off. Infinity War, during this week last year, made $87.4 million from Monday to Thursday. I'd expect Endgame to make at least $110 million more by the end of the day Thursday.
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Post by oppy all along on May 1, 2019 0:16:42 GMT -5
Worldwide box office for April 26-281: Avengers: Endgame, $1,216,115,007 / $1,216,115,007 (NEW) 2: The Curse of La Llorona, $15,845,744 / $87,992,579 (-1, -72%) 3: Shazam!, $10,983,903 / $346,240,322 (-1, -71%) 4: Captain Marvel, $10,412,751 / $1,111,359,825 (=, -33%) 5: Dumbo (2019), $9,893,282 / $328,715,880 (-2, -51%) So yeah, Avengers: Endgame. It's pretty popular. Breaking some records. There are two major comparison points for Endgame at the moment - the largest ever domestic grosser Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and the largest ever worldwide grosser Avatar. I'll focus on the latter. Endgame has some big points over Avatar at the moment. Avatar opened worldwide at about $241,571,046. This is a much smaller number than $1,216,115,007. Avengers: Endgame made more in China in the first weekend than Avatar made in its whole run. But that's not where Avatar made it's money. A mediocre China box office (a paltry $200 million) was compensated by making at least $100 million in Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Russia, South Korea, Spain, and the UK. At at least $50 million from Brazil and Italy, and at least $10 million from Austria, Belgium, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece, Hong Kong, India, Israel, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and Turkey. That shit adds up. It ran for months in these countries, pulling in a steady income week after week after week. Endgame is unlikely to have that kind of length. Two months in, Infinity War wasn't even making $10 million a week worldwide anymore. This typically isn't a reasonable standard to apply to a movie, but it is when you're big game hunting Avatar. Avengers: Endgame will need to hold well (let's say a bit under 50%, scrape right up against that $2 billion mark) or have legs for days to be considered on track to dethrone Avatar. Another problem Infinity War faced is that despite outgrossing Avatar in China, it wasn't getting those huge receipts from the rest of the world. Endgame will need more legs in the supplemental territories as well. It's a big job, but they are the Avengers. Who knows what could happen. Into the also-rans! The Curse of La Llorona was bludgeoned by horror drop + Endgame (nice grosses in Mexico and Colombia though), Shazam! was bludgeoned by being a competing superhero movie against Endgame, Captain Marvel held well with a nice Endgame tailwind to get a bonus on the end of their $1.1 billion run, and Dumbo (2019) did okay but is definitely coming in at the tail-end of Disney's live action remakes and is not going to earn Disney their money back in box office. I mean, it's okay though. They do have Avengers: Endgame. Next week we have... Long Shot and Uglydolls? Congratulations to Avengers: Endgame for leading the worldwide box office two weeks in a row. 2019 worldwide box office 1: Avengers: Endgame (NEW) / $1,216,115,007
2: Captain Marvel (-1) / $1,110,441,798*
3: The Wandering Earth (-1) / $695,117,338
4: How to Train Your Dragon 3 (-1) / $516,089,095
5: Alita: Battle Angel (-1) / $402,920,280
6: Shazam! (=) / $346,413,630
7: Dumbo (2019) (=) / $327,859,840
8: Crazy Alien (-3) / $326,150,303
9: Pegasus (-1) / $255,832,826
10: Us (-1) / $249,478,890
*I use Box Office Mojo for some numbers and Charting With Dan! for others, they don't always line up exactly. But unless we're splitting nickels they should be accurate enough
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Post by MarkInTexas on May 1, 2019 10:06:33 GMT -5
I prefer focusing on domestic box office, so if you want to do a weekly international write-up, go for it!
I don't think anything is going to knock Avengers out of #1--domestic or international--until Aladdin arrives in 3 1/2 weeks.
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Post by MarkInTexas on May 2, 2019 13:30:39 GMT -5
What else is left to be said about this weekend?
Avengers: Endgame shattered numerous records on its way to a $357.1 million weekend. Let me repeat that number--$357.1 million. In three and a half days. Just this weekend alone, it made more money than all but four film released last year did in their entire runs. Indeed, it outgrossed all but 46 movies released ever. Again, let me repeat this--since the dawn of cinema, only 46 movies, in their entire runs, including re-releases, grossed more than Avengers: Endgame made from Thursday night through Sunday night.
So the question today is--is Star Wars: The Force Awakens going down? It very well might. Endgame came out of the weekend with a nearly $110 million lead on Star Wars. That's a pretty nice cushion for Endgame to have since it will be making less money on the weekdays than Star Wars did, due to that film being released just at the start of Christmas break. If Avengers Weekend 2 can top Star Wars's Weekend 2 gross of $149.2 million, then I think Endgame being the new #1 movie of all time is assured. There's even a very will chance that it could be the first movie to top $1 billion at the US box office.
But all this does not necessarily mean Endgame will be the biggest film of the year, because lurking out on December 20 is Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. Even though The Last Jedi was a mild disappointment and Solo was a huge disappointment, you can expect the hype of the final appearance of Luke, Leia, Chewey, and the Droids will send anticipation into overdrive. And, unlike Endgame, Skywalker won't have to compete with school on its first weekdays.
Of course, both movies are being released by Disney, so basically Mickey will be having a money fight with himself. With Captain Marvel already out, and with Aladdin, Toy Story 4, The Lion King, and Frozen 2 also coming out this year, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that the top 7 grossing films of 2019 will all be Disney titles. Welcome to Walt Disney World.
Believe it or not, other movies were out last weekend, even as nearly 9 out of every 10 tickets sold last weekend were to Endgame. In second was the aforementioned Captain Marvel, which basked in enough people apparently wanting a Marvel/Avengers doubleheader to take in 8.3 million. Its overall total stands at $413.8 million, enough so it can enjoy being 2019's #1 movie for a few more days. The Curse of La Llorona probably would have fallen heavily even without Endgame, but it might have been able to scrape together more than $8.1 million. Its ten-day stands at $41.8 million. Christian drama Breakthrough easily held up the best of any non-Marvel-related title, earning $6.8 million, probably mostly from people who were only vaguely aware of the existence of a Marvel Cinematic Universe. Its 12-day total is $26.6 million. Rounding out the Top 5 is Shazam!, which picked up another $5.6 million probably from a combination of DC loyalists and people who couldn't get into Endgame and wanted to see something with a superhero.
As theaters were eager to devote as many screens as they could to Endgame, a lot of titles that normally would have played for another week or two were shown the door, meaning that most of the second 5--Dumbo, Little, Pet Sematary, and Us--saw theater counts--and grosses--decline rapidly, with Dumbo and Little both making $3.5 million and the two horror tiles grossing $1.3 million and $1.2 million respectively. Finishing at #10 is Penguins, with $1.1 million, a finish it probably got because theaters were obligated to keep the film for a second weekend, unlike Missing Link, After, and Hellboy, all of which made more than Penguins did last weekend, but all of which could be--and were--dumped to make room for Endgame screens 6, 7, and 8.
This weekend brings four films that in an earlier era might have seemed like clever counterprogramming, but today, just seems like more cannon fodder. The widest release is Uglydolls, a cheap-looking animated film based on the toy line that appears to be about believing in yourself and how beauty is on the inside. The appropriately titled Long Shot is a romantic comedy in which schlubby journalist Seth Rogan reunites and falls for childhood babysitter Charleze Theron--who is now Secretary of State. Finally, The Intruder looks even more generic than Uglydolls, as Dennis Quaid sells his property to a young couple, only to continue to show up unannounced and uninvited. Expect some standard-issue PG-13 scares and violence. Finally, there's the action flick El Chicano, which like Curse of La Llorona, is an English-language film with a mostly Hispanic cast. While I expect at least a couple of these movies to do at least OK business it's hard to see any of them comes within $125 million of what Endgame does this weekend.
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Post by Ben Grimm on May 2, 2019 14:40:18 GMT -5
But all this does not necessarily mean Endgame will be the biggest film of the year, because lurking out on December 20 is Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. Even though The Last Jedi was a mild disappointment and Solo was a huge disappointment, you can expect the hype of the final appearance of Luke, Leia, Chewey, and the Droids will send anticipation into overdrive. And, unlike Endgame, Skywalker won't have to compete with school on its first weekdays. The previous Star Wars trilogies have a Box Office pattern that so far the Sequel Trilogy has replicated: First movie does the best, second movie is down about a third from the first, third does a bit better than the second but not as well as the first. Given that Last Jedi was down about a third from Force Awakens, it did more or less exactly how it was expected to. And since it fit the pattern, I'm expecting Rise of Skywalker to fit the pattern as well, meaning it'll probably get $700 million or so and be the highest grossing number two film for the year by a huge margin. |
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Post by oppy all along on May 7, 2019 4:57:46 GMT -5
Worldwide Box Office for May 3-51: Avengers: Endgame, $429,583,211 / $2,193,740,110 (=, -65%) 2: Capernaum, $13,100,000 / $40,109,120 (I dunno, probably exponential) 3: Long Shot, $13,040,064 / $13,040,064 (NEW) 4: The Intruder, $10,855,054 / $10,855,054 (NEW) 5: Uglydolls, $9,558,407 / $9,558,407 (NEW) *5: The Curse of La Llorona, $9,802,607 / $104,602,620 (N/A) *One source said Uglydolls was 5, another (fuzzy) source said The Curse of La Llorona made a bit more money. I'm lazy and it doesn't really matter, it's still Avengers: Endgame, who cares about who came 5th when Avengers: Endgame won the week by $415m.Once again, Avengers: Endgame. On one hand 65% is a pretty steep drop. On the other hand it made a billion dollars last week and then pulled massive mid-week numbers to catapult it over the $2 billion mark and pass Titanic for the second biggest worldwide of all time. It's been a couple of weeks, and I think I'm comfortable asserting that Avengers: Endgame has made a pretty good sum of money. Good work Disney. As for record-chasing, it's made good ground on Avatar. It's easy to be optimistic when you see it $600m away from the #1 spot. How's that for Avengers fatigue Mr. Cameron? Eh, he probably doesn't care. This is where the going gets hard. Detective Pikachu shows up next week, the first established IP to resurface after the box office went undercover to hide from Endgame fallout. John Wick, Aladdin, and Godzilla show up before too long as well. China is tapped out, the money you make in China in the first two weeks is basically all the money you're making there. It's very front-loaded. And we're at the point where most people who are interested in Endgame have caught it or been spoiled already. Now we see if Avengers: Endgame has the legs to make up the gross of Iron Man on top of the $2 billion it's already made. Capernaum is an interesting case. China has long been scoffed at as the place where schlock starring Transformers and The Rock go to make their budget back when they're too dumb to make bank in America. And yet, a week ago an Oscar nominated foreign language drama from Lebanon opened in China (several months after initially releasing in 2018) and made more than it did anywhere else in the world. Between that and Green Book's surprising gross, China has may become a place for 'cinema'. I'm surprised as well. Long Shot, The Intruder, and Uglydolls all opened as well. A romantic comedy, a psychological thriller, and a computer-animated musical comedy all thought they could counter-program against Avengers: Endgame. They were wrong. The Intruder is fine, the budget is $10m so they're doing great. Long Shot and Uglydolls both spent over $40m in their budget. They are in trouble. Long Shot got a B at CinemaScore, for a comedy that is quite bad and probably doesn't bode well for their box office legs, especially as other big properties start rolling in. Uglydolls is sitting a bit better at B+ but that's still not great. Uglydolls was trying to launch a new media franchise as well. Most of their budget went to getting famous musicians to voice singing characters in their movies. So at least Pitbull, Janelle Monae, and Kelly Clarkson got paid. The Curse of La Llorona may have been in the top 5 as well. It made over $100m on a budget of $9m. It got crappy reviews and a mediocre CinemaScore but horror movies exist in a weird place where people shouting that your movie is shit leads to making more money. Also, good money in Mexico, Spain, Colombia and... France. Huh. Horror movies are super reliable. Next week Detective Pikachu shows up looking for the crown. The Hustle (Anne Kendrick and Rebel Wilson in a remake of Dirty Rotten Scoundrels) and Poms (respected old lady actors as old ladies who start a cheer squad) show up to compete for 3-5 as well. Poms was by the same people as and is a similar to Book Club, a movie with old ladies that didn't open big but it held really well as word of mouth spread so that could be interesting. Maybe counter-programming will work this weekend. 2019 Worldwide Box Office1: Avengers: Endgame (=) / $2,193,740,959 2: Captain Marvel (=) / $1,120,116,950 3: The Wandering Earth (=) / $692,832,548 4: How to Train Your Dragon 3 (=) / $517,238,530 5: Alita: Battle Angel (=) / $404,750,531 6: Shazam! (=) / $355,948,748 7: Dumbo (2019) (=) / $339,217,918 8: Crazy Alien (=) / $326,150,303 9: Pegasus (=) / $255,832,826 10: Us (=) / $251,919,550
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Post by MarkInTexas on May 9, 2019 17:50:54 GMT -5
Avengers: Endgame once again utterly dominated the box office this weekend. But it's dominance wasn't nearly as overwhelming as last weekend's dominance, and while the film is making a huge amount of money, cracks are beginning to show that might prevent it from making the most amount of money.
Endgame took in $147.4 million over the weekend, bringing its ten-day total to a staggering $621.3 million. In that short amount of time, Endgame has outgrossed all but 7 other films ever released in North America. And yet...
Most MCU movies have been frontloaded, so the fact that Endgame fell nearly 59% shouldn't be too troubling. Still, it becomes the first movie to have a weekend-to-weekend drop of over $200 million (of course, only 6 other movies have opened above $200 million). But that was enough to prevent it from snatching the all-time second weekend crown from Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which grossed $149.2 million over Christmas weekend 2015. And while Endgame still has a lead, its lead has shrunk from $109.1 million after last Sunday to $81.2 million this Sunday. And as Star Wars's second week was the week between Christmas and New Year's, it should have earned far more weekday business this week than Avengers will. Endgame could still snatch away the all-time title. But it will be close. Still, Endgame will be no worse than the second-highest-grossing movie of all time. as it's now less than $140 million away from Avatar.
Coming in 2nd, way, way behind Endgame is newcomer The Intruder, starring Dennis Quaid as a former homeowner who isn't quite ready to give up his property, much to the chagrin of the couple he sold it to. The thriller opened to an $10.9 million, but will likely top out below $30 million.
In third, the romantic comedy Long Shot presumably hoped it would be the Notting Hill to Endgame's Phantom Menace, but it could only muster up $9.7 million. For Charlize Theron, that's better than what her dramady Tully opened to on this weekend last year, but still... This also represents one of Seth Rogan's worst openings, and unlike The Guilt Trip, 50/50, or The Night Before, all of which proved to be decently leggy, Long Shot is a long shot to pass $25 million.
In third is the animated Uglydolls, continuing a trend of G and PG-rated film mildly to massively under-performing since late July. The only PG-rated films that exceeded expectations during that stretch were The Grinch and Dragon Ball Super: Broly. There are 4 PG-rated films opening over the next 5 weeks, so we'll see if any of them reverse the trend. Meanwhile, Uglydolls had an ugly opening, taking in $8.6 million.
Captain Marvel continues to lead the holdovers, rounding out the top 5 with $4.3 million for a total of $420.8 million. In all the hype surrounding the arrival of Endgame, I failed to note it passed Wonder Woman's total, and is now the second-highest MCU movie without the word "Avengers" in its title.
In 6th, Christian drama Breakthrough continues to do decent business, making $3.9 million for a total of $33.2 million. The Curse of La Llorona is fading fast, making $3.7 million for a total of $48.3 million. Rounding out the Top 10 is Shazam! with $2.5 million, Dumbo with $1.5 million, and Little, with $1.4 million.
This week's biggest opening is Detective Pikachu, a live-action (except for all the CGI creatures) Pokemon adventure with the voice of Ryan Reynolds, channeling Deadpool through a PG-rated filter. While I don't expect it to take down Endgame, it could come closer than a lot of people are expecting. The Hustle is a gender-switched remake of the 80s MGM comedy Dirty Rotten Scoundrels (a year after a gender-switched remake of the 80s MGM comedy Overboard) with Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson as polar opposite con artists competing on the French Riviera. Then there's Poms, the latest "Geezers rediscover life!" comedy. The male versions of these films always seem to star Morgan Freeman, and after last year's Book Club, the female versions seem to always star Diane Keaton, who plays a woman who decides to start a cheerleading squad at her retirement village. Finally, Tolkien, a portrait of the future Lord of the Rings author as a young man, opens wide for some reason (maybe if it was 15 years ago...). Will audiences pika pika Detective Pikachu this weekend, or will Avengers be on top at the end(game)? We'll see this weekend.
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oppy all along
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Who's been messing up everything? It was oppy all along
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Post by oppy all along on May 15, 2019 1:52:31 GMT -5
Worldwide Box Office for May 10-12
1: Avengers: Endgame, $165,599,066, $2,489,617,092 (=, -61%)
2: Pokémon: Detective Pikachu, $157,365,242, $157,365,242 (NEW)
3: The Hustle, $26,707,709, $26,707,709 (NEW)
4: Capernaum,$8,320,000, $56,323,721 (-2, -36%)
5: Long Shot, $7,823,532, $26,003,467 (-2, -40%)
Avengers: Endgame hangs on for another week. It's still chugging along after Avatar's worldwide record, although the domestic record is beginning to look further and further out of reach. The drops have been disappointing for Avengers fans, although they maybe shouldn't have been. People are comparing Endgame to all the other recent massive hits - Infinity War, The Force Awakens, Black Panther, Avatar - without taking into consideration that Endgame is an unprecedented cinematic event. For most blockbusters, 60% drops from weekend to weekend would be bad, but Endgame literally made a cool billion in four days. Hoping for Black Panther drops on top of that because it got an A+ CinemaScore is maybe being a little optimistic.
That being said, the fine people at Disney are probably hoping Endgame's numbers pull up a bit, particularly as it chases Avatar. Or maybe they don't care, they own Avatar as well. It had to make the gross of Iron Man last week, now it doesn't even need the gross of Shazam!. But if it pulling 50+% drops a week it may end up limping over the finish line, if at all. The ideal situation for Endgame is that it finds a floor where it can keep chugging out dependable totals for the next month or two. It doesn't need to make $100m a week, but somewhere in the area of $50m would do the trick.
Pokémon: Detective Pikachu arrived as well, and nobody can seem to agree on what Detective Pikachu was expected to make and whether this represents a strong, average, or weak opening weekend. Is it doing really well for a video game adaptation, or really bad for a wide release film adaptation of one of the most profitable media franchises of all time? I mean $150m is a lot of money. It's probably not doing terribly. Let's wait and see how it holds.
The Hustle did pretty well, probably. $26m seems like a fair gross for a comedy as long as they didn't way overpay on the budget. Solid international returns for a comedy, particularly in Australia. We do like Revel Wilson here. Low reviews and CinemaScore so we're waiting on that hold as well, but if the budget was as low as you'd expect a comedy starring Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson to be then this could already be a successful little movie.
Capernaum remains a strange example of China suddenly taking a fancy to prestige cinema (and may have taken a chunk out of Detective Pikachu's China box office in the process). Roma recently started a limited run in China as well, because Chinese moviegoers are sophisticated. Long Shot held well enough to stay in the top 5 as well, holding out debuting titles Poms (nothing to cheer about) and Tolkien (needed more orcs), as well as fellow stragglers from last week The Intruder (held pretty well) and Uglydolls (did not hold at all this is going to lose so much money).
Next week Avengers: Endgame and Pokémon: Detective Pikachu will fight it out for #1 with John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum (was 'John Wick 3' so difficult?). A Dog's Journey (dog reincarnation I think?) and The Sun Is Also a Star (sappy teen drama) will also be debuting wide.
2019 Worldwide Box Office
1: Avengers: Endgame (=) / $2,489,617,092
2: Captain Marvel (=) / $1,124,614,676
3: The Wandering Earth (=) / $692,163,684
4: How to Train Your Dragon 3 (=) / $517,440,290
5: Alita: Battle Angel (=) / $404,780,321
6: Shazam! (=) / $359,801,984
7: Dumbo (2019) (=) / $344,429,396
8: Crazy Alien (=) / $326,150,303
9: Pegasus (=) / $255,832,826
10: Us (=) / $253,511,645
We'll get our first movement in a while on this list as Detective Pikachu makes it's way up. And then northern hemisphere summer will kick in properly and we'll have a bunch of big movies chasing off the scrappy underdogs on the list so far. So enjoy Pegasus and Crazy Alien while you can.
Also, Netflix added The Wandering Earth to their service (in America, not Australia) with basically zero fanfare. So if you want to see what makes over half a billion dollars in China then I strongly encourage it. Then report back to me. Because international copyright laws are bullshit.
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Post by MarkInTexas on May 17, 2019 17:48:25 GMT -5
Sorry for the delay in this week's entry. My brother graduated from college this week, and between traveling, family stuff, and the need for sleep, I haven't had time to write this up until now.
Avengers: Endgame will pass Avatar. It will pass $800 million. It might even pass $900 million. What it won't do is pass Star Wars: The Force Awakens to become the #1 movie of all time.
That much became clear when Star Wars not only made up a $81.2 million deficit, it added an $18.5 million surplus in just one week. And Endgame, which earned over $100 million from Monday through Sunday, had a very good week. It's just that Star Wars, which had its days 11-17 the week between Christmas and New Year's, had a jaw-droppingly huge week to wrap up 2015 and kick off 2016, earning another $200 million. Even though Force Awakens came back down to earth once the holidays were over, the message is clear--any movie that wants to take down Awakens will not only need a massively huge opening, but also sustained legs. Endgame, which is fading fast, could only provide one of the two.
That said, compared to literally every other movie ever made, Endgame is having a huge run. It took in $63.3 million over the weekend, the fourth-largest third weekend ever. The total now stands at $723.8 million. Only three prior movies had broken the $700 million barrier. Black Panther has already been dusted, and Avatar will fall this weekend. But unless Endgame develops Avatar-like legs, Avatar will be the last movie it passes.
Opening well in second is Detective Pikachu, which rode solid reviews, affection for Pokemon, and Ryan Reynolds's PG-rated smart-assery to $54.4 million. This marks the biggest opening ever for a film based on a video game, which considering the awful history of those types of movies, isn't that impressive an accomplishment (it beat out the first Tomb Raider, which had held the record for 18 years). Pikachu faces serious competition for the family audience in the coming weeks from Aladdin and The Secret Lives of Pets 2, but it still should be able to make $120 million easily, and could even top $150 million.
Opening in third is The Hustle, the gender-switched remake of 1988's Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, which itself was a remake of 1964's Bedtime Story. With mixed-to-negative reviews for the Anne Hathaway/Rebel Wilson conwoman comedy, it's not surprising that The Hustle was only able to trick $13 million out of audiences. But then, last year's poorly reviewed, gender-flipped remake of Overboard opened to $14.7 million and made it to $50.3 million, and with no broad, PG-13 rated comedies opening until Men In Black International arrives next month, The Hustle might develop some legs.
Holding on surprisingly well for 4th is The Intruder, which scared up $7.2 million for a 10-day total of $21.6 million. Also holding relatively steady in weekend 2 is romantic comedy Long Shot, which made $6.3 million for a ten-day total of $19.9 million. Although neither is going to get much above $30 million, those holds suggest that both these films might have been minor hits had they been released at a less competitive time of year.
In 6th is Poms, which struggled with a $5.4 million opening. For the past several years, audiences have made numerous films about older people getting their groove back by taking up oddball activities from reading to bank robbery into mild hits. But apparently, having older women become cheerleaders pushed the formula a bit too far. Poms will struggle to get to $20 million.
Uglydolls had an ugly second week, taking in $4.2 million for a ten-day of $14.5 million. Breakthrough brought in $2.6 million, for a total of $37.2 million. This is easily the biggest Christian hit since last year's I Can Only Imagine, but it will finish with only about half the gross of that film.
Opening in 9th is the 15-years-too-late biopic Tolkien, which made $2.2 million. This is probably more than it would have made over its entire run had it opened in limited release, but I suspect advertising costs might eat up whatever extra money the wide release would bring in.
Wrapping up the Top 10 is The Curse of La Llorona, which barely beat out Captain Marvel for the final spot, as both made about $1.9 million. La Llorona has now made $51.5 million, continuing a strong year for modestly-budgeted horror titles.
This weekend's big opening is John Wick: Chapter 3--Parabellum, the latest entry in the popular film series about a hit man you really don't want to get on the bad side of. John Wick Chapter 2 opened two years ago to $30.4 million, and this seems destined to top it. It might even be able to beat out the entire $43 million gross of the first one in 2014. At the time, that number seemed impressive. Now, there's a pretty good chance Chapter 3 will make more than $100 million, which would be Reeves's first $100 million grosser since Something's Gotta Give back in 2003.
Also opening is A Dog's Journey, the official sequel to A Dog's Purpose. It is looking like a mistake for this dog to journey to a May release date, especially after A Dog's Way Home, which was not the official sequel to A Dog's Purpose despite the similar title and premise, could only muster an $11.2 million opening back in January. That seems to be about where Journey is heading to this weekend. And then there's The Sun is Also a Star, the latest YA adaption. As a genre, its been struggling lately, with the $45.6 million Five Feel Apart has earned so far the high water mark (and that one isn't even an official YA adaption). With minimal advertising, ti's likely that this Sun is going to set very fast.
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oppy all along
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Who's been messing up everything? It was oppy all along
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Post by oppy all along on May 21, 2019 3:26:03 GMT -5
Worldwide Box Office for May 17-19
1: John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, $92,018,067, $92,018,067 (NEW)
2: Pokémon: Detective Pikachu, $78,908,159, $290,495,005 (=, -50%)
3: Avengers: Endgame, $76,773,505, $2,616,850,987 (-2, -54%)
4: A Dog's Journey, $21,930,085, $21,930,085 (NEW)
5: The Hustle, $15,639,638, $51,304,362 (-2, -41%)
There is a new champion! John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum posted a stunning return, earning more than the entire box office of the first John Wick and nearly double the opening weekend of the second John Wick. The enduring popularity of the John Wick franchise, that started from a second unit director/former stunt guy thinking "I can make a way better action movie than what's being made right now", is a heartwarming tale that if you're passionate about what you do and you get Keanu Reeves involved you can do anything. As for how it holds, we're hitting the murderer's row of summer movies. But for now John Wick is #1.
Plus John Wick 4 has already been announced so there's more beautiful long-take action scenes to come.
Pokémon: Detective Pikachu is doing pretty well. It once again splits the difference, holding very well for a video game movie and holding kind of poorly for a family movie. It's a funny little duck of a movie, but it's making good money in Japan. There are some big family movies coming up so potentially rough seas ahead. But it's doing pretty well. Ryan Reynolds maintains his hold on all DP franchises for years to come. (alternate joke: he doubly penetrated the market)
1: Avatar, $2,787,965,087
2: Avengers: Endgame, $2,616,850,987 (-$171,114,100)
Avengers: Endgame is closing in on Avatar but it's gonna be close. The drops are (gradually) slowing and China is well and truly spent now. It's all up to how many more rewatch dollars Marvel can pump out of their fans as we hit the summer box office. That being said, even if Avengers: Endgame falls short that won't be the end of it. A solid $32 million of Avatar's box office is from an August 2010 re-release. There's nothing stopping Disney from employing the same strategy to get Endgame over the line. Hell, they could go full late-stage capitalism and hold re-releases for both movies simultaneously, encouraging fans to show out and put their movie over the top. Avatar still has fans, right?
A Dog's Journey did poorly (but it's probably low budget so it's probably fine). I just today learned the full premise of this movie and I'm very confused. "It's summer, the sun is bright, how do I want to enjoy this happy time? Oh I know, watch a movie about how dogs die." Putting aside my confusion at who the audience is for this repeated emotional tragedy movie, it's possible that the marketplace has been saturated with dog movies. A Dog's Way Home was earlier this year, it's even possible that John Wick 3 watered down dog viewings. And there's also the fact that all the dogs die in this movie. Bloody hell.
Fifth place is The Hustle. Solid hold all things considered. Turning out to be a solid little earner. A movie that wasn't a solid earner was The Sun Is Also a Star. Terrible opening weekend, weak reviews, weak reception from the audience that came to see the movie in the first week, we will not be seeing this statement of a well-known fact again. Next week we have Memorial Day weekend and it's being left open for Aladdin (2019) to rake in a big opening against the second, third, and fifth weeks of the current top 3. We will also see potential sleeper hits in Booksmart, a very well-reviewed female-driven R-rated comedy, and Brightburn, the superhero horror (superhorror?) movie James Gunn produced while he and Marvel were undergoing a trial separation.
2019 Worldwide Box Office
1: Avengers: Endgame (=) / $2,616,850,987
2: Captain Marvel (=) / $1,126,318,317
3: The Wandering Earth (=) / $692,163,684
4: How to Train Your Dragon 3 (=) / $517,646,075
5: Alita: Battle Angel (=) / $404,780,321
6: Shazam! (=) / $361,467,613
7: Dumbo (2019) (=) / $346,916,051
8: Crazy Alien (=) / $316,150,303
9: Pokémon: Detective Pikachu (NEW) / $290,495,005
10: Pegasus (-1) / $255,832,826
We have our first movement on the list! Us has been untethered from the worldwide top 10, though it's great that a low-budget horror movie with something to say (even if nobody could quite agree on what that was) stuck in for that long anyway. Detective Pikachu is going to keep moving up the list next week and all the remaining properties will brace to potentially get swept off the board by Godzilla 2.
Well, the $1b+ movies are probably fine. It's good to be Marvel.
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Post by MarkInTexas on May 22, 2019 17:55:18 GMT -5
It is quite common for sequels to open far better than the originals. It's less common for the third film to open better than the second, but it's not unheard of. However, for the second film to roughly double the opening of the first, and then the third to roughly double the opening of the second is very rare indeed. John Wick: Chapter 3-Parabellum pulled that trick off, as the series went from a respectable $14.4 million opening in 2014 to a $30.4 million opening for the second part in 2017 to Chapter 3's $56.8 million this weekend. That's a better opening than the considerably more hyped (and considerably more family friendly) Pokemon Detective Pikachu opened to last weekend.
The first two John Wick movies had a final gross roughly triple their opening weekends. If Parabellum follows suit, it will end its run with around $170 million. There's a pretty good chance that Parabellum will be more front-loaded than the first two installments, though, not the least of which is movies have room for longer legs in October and February, where the first two films opened, than they do in May. However, even if Parabellum ends up around $140 million or so, it will still be a major success. Of course, Part 4 has already been announced for two years from onw.
Continuing to quickly lose box office altitude is Avengers: Endgame, which took in $30 million to bring its total to $771.4 million. That's enough to move past Avatar to #2 on the all-time list. By any objective manner, Endgame is still printing money--that $30 million is more than all but ten movies this year (including Endgame, of course) made on their opening weekends, and it has the 5th best 4th weekend of all time. Still, given the heights it started from, the fact it barely made more than Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle did on its fourth weekend is a tad sobering.
Coming in third is the aforementioned Pokemon Detective Pikachu, which made $25.1 million for a ten-day total of $94.3 million. It will catch $100 million before next weekend. That's not a great hold, but it's not a disasterous drop, either. The film seems on track to finish around $150 million.
If John Wick: Chapter 3 captures the bright side of moving a franchise from a less competitive time on the calendar to summer, than A Dog's Journey represents the nightmare scenario, as it opened to less than half of what predecessor A Dog's Purpose opened to in January 2017. Indeed, the $8 million opening is less than what A Dog's Way Home opened to this January, not to mention less than what The Intruder, also starring Dennis Quaid, made in its opening weekend a couple of weeks ago. This Journey will likely come to an end at less than $30 million.
The Hustle didn't exactly hustle up a strong hold, as the con artist comedy made $6.1 million for a ten-day total of $23.2 million. It seems unlikely to get to the $42 million that predecessor Dirty Rotten Scoundrels made in 1988--with 1988 money.
The aforementioned Intruder broke into sixth, taking in $4 million for a total of $28.1 million. The romcom Long Shot scored another $3.3 million for a total of $25.7 million.
Opening even worse than its pessimistic predictions, YA adaption The Sun is Also a Star immediately set at the box office, earning a pathetic $2.5 million. That's the second-worst opening this year for a film opening on over 2,000 screens. The only worse opening was Replicas, and unfortunately for Star stars Charles Melton and Yara Shahidi, they don't have a John Wick waiting in the wings. They do, however, have TV roles to get back to.
Rounding out the Top 10 is disastrous cheerleading grandmas comedy Poms, which made $2.2 million for a ten-day total of $10.1 million, and disastrous living ugly doll cartoon Uglydolls, which made $1.8 million for a total of $17.4 million.
Three new movies arrive this weekend, one wannabe blockbuster and two smaller films hoping to be sleeper hits. The big film is, of course, Aladdin, Disney's latest live-action remake of one of its animated classics. There is increasing evidence that America's desire to see Disney classics with real actors has largely been sated, as Aladdin is expected to not even do half of the $174.8 million Beauty and the Beast opened up to two years ago. That said, if Aladdin can open north of I Am Legend's $77.2 million opening, it will be Will Smith's second largest opening after Suicide Squad.
Booksmart, about two studious high school girls who decide to finally cut loose on graduation night, has been frequently compared to Superbad, and not just because star Beanie Feldstein is the sister of Jonah Hill (Feldstein). Reviews have been largely very good. Brightburn, produced by once and future Guardians of the Galaxy director James Gunn, asks what would happen if young Superman didn't want truth, justice, and the American way but instead decided to seek revenge on all his enemies, real or imagined. Both titles are likely heading to debuts in the mid-teens, though one or both of them could find themselves in the $20s, or even higher. We'll find out if its a whole new world for the box office next week.
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Post by MarkInTexas on May 31, 2019 14:30:10 GMT -5
I apologize for the delay in this week's write-up. Our primary system is down at work, which means we're stuck on the much slower backup system, which means everything is taking much longer. Hopefully, they'll get the primary system fixed this weekend.
Aladdin not only opened one jump ahead of the competition, it opened one jump ahead of expectations, taking in $91.5 million over the Friday-Sunday portion of Memorial Day weekend, and $116.8 million over the entire four days. Will Smith can certainly say his friends like him, as this represents his second-best opening ever, trailing only Suicide Squad's $133.7 million opening in August 2016. As for Disney, the studio can stop holding its breath, as it has gotten better for its non-Marvel live action(ish) movies, which had been on a year-and-a-half long losing streak, with A Wrinkle in Time, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Christopher Robin, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, Mary Poppins Returns, Dumbo, and Penguins all under-performing. If Aladdin had flopped, there would have been deep concern for the upcoming The Lion King, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. Now, Disney can go back to installing a literal endless diamond sky over Burbank.
Coming in second this weekend is last week's champ, John Wick: Chapter 3--Parabellum, which shot up $24.6 million over the three-day and $31 million over the four-day, for a total of $107.6 million. This is a steeper fall than the first two films suffered in their second weekends, but Parabellum also started much higher than the first two, which means this is still the third highest grossing weekend of the franchise. At a minimum, it seems certain to outgross the more expensive, more hyped Detective Pikachu.
The week-to-week grosses for Avengers: Endgame have gone from "eye-popping" at the beginning of the month to "solid" at the end. The second-highest-grossing film of all time took in another $17.2 million from Friday through Sunday and $22.1 million through Monday. That's more than enough to pass $800 million, to $803.4 million. Endgame's endgame is looking likely to be between $850 million and $875 million.
In 4th is the aforementioned Pokemon Detective Pikachu, which brought in $13.4 million through Sunday and $17.2 million through Monday, for a total of $120.1 million. The family-friendly sorta-noir with cartoon characters has a shot at beating the final gross of the other family-friendly sorta-noir with cartoon characters, Who Framed Roger Rabbit, which finished its 1988 run with $156.5 million. Of course, $156.5 million is much less impressive today than it was 31 years ago.
Joined at the hip at #5 and #6 were the weekend's other two openings, both R-rated, low-budget films with one-word, two syllable compound word titles beginning with B that have a strong chance of being cult hits once they hit DVD/streaming. The evil Superboy riff Brightburn took in $7.9 million through Sunday and $9.6 million through Monday, while the Superbad-with-girls-and-even-better-reviews comedy Booksmart made $6.9 million/$8.7 million. Both these openings are less than what their studios were hoping for, and they're both probably looking at ceilings around $30 million, but as I said, both seem destined to live on and on once they arrive for home viewing in a few months.
May counterprogramming rounded out the top ten with A Dog's Journey ($4.1 million/$5.5 million for $16.3 million, The Hustle ($3.6 million/$4.6 million for $30.6 million), The Intruder ($2.3 million/$2.9 million for $32.6 million), and Long Shot ($1.6 million/$2 million for $29.1 million) finish out their runs.
This weekend's big opening is Godzilla: King of the Monsters, a follow-up to 2104's surprisingly warmly-received Godzilla, which opened to a better-than-expected $93.2 million. This one is getting much harsher reviews, and no one expects it to open that high, though one north of $60 million should be possible. WB does need this one to be a hit, since Godzilla vs. Kong is set for release next March.
Also opening is Bohemian Rhapsody 2 Rocketman, the Elton John biopic. Given the huge success of Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born last fall, anything less than a $200 million final gross will be seen as a disappointment. Rocketman will likely debut below where Star and Bohemian opened, but this feels like it could be the first summer movie that might be a blockbuster with legs. Finally, Ma gives Octavia Spencer a well-deserved leading role, even if it is in a rather generic-looking horror title about a woman who gives the local teens a place to party, but might expect way too much in return. Like most Blumhouse titles, this one has a ridiculously low budget, so it will almost certainly be turning a profit before it leaves theaters.
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Post by oppy all along on Jun 3, 2019 23:23:45 GMT -5
Alright, we're back! The numbers were all messed up for last weekend, some charts included Memorial Day, some didn't, and I'm lazy so I didn't bother. But here's the numbers I had and then straight into this week.
Worldwide Box Office for May 24-26 (not counting Memorial Day)
1: Aladdin (2019), $212,500,929 (NEW)
2: John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, $49,387,676 (-1, -46%)
3: Pokémon: Detective Pikachu, $37,716,259 (-1, -52%)
4: Avengers: Endgame, $32,500,742 (-1, -58%)
5: Brightburn, $12,345,658 (NEW)
Rapid rundown, Aladdin real good, John Wick good, Detective Pikachu okay, Endgame bad but probably fine in the grand scheme of things, Brightburn low but cheap. Also released was Booksmart, with a lot of online discourse about how people should see it and very little people actually seeing it. Oh the Twitter arguments that ensued, especially since it was pounded into the ground by a Disney cash-grab remake (but one that almost exclusively stars people of colour). That discourse was heated, let me tell you.
Worldwide Box Office for May 31-June 2
1: Godzilla: King of the Monsters, $177,776,293, $177,776,293 (NEW)
2: Aladdin (2019), $121,140,544, $449,850,077 (-1, -43%)
3: Rocketman, $44,925,722, $44,925,722 (NEW)
4: Parasite, $24,657,000, $24,657,000 (NEW)
5: John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, $23,785,459, $221,638,271, (-3, -52%)
Godzilla: King of the Monsters is the, well, king, but trouble looms ahead. It has come in way behind projections, and making less money than Godzilla (2014) and Kong: Skull Island did in their opening weekends. This is very bad for because A) Godzilla: King of the Monsters needs to make like $600m to get its budget in theatres and it is on track to make two thirds of that, and B) this is a franchise that WB is trying to build up to a glorious culmination but it's looking more Justice League than Avengers. There's no lifeline coming from China or Japan either, this disappointing number is including Godzilla's two biggest markets. It's not like Kong: Skull Island when it got a nice boost three weeks in. South Korea was otherwise occupied as well. This is across the board looking bad, and will need to mutate massive legs to pull through for WB. Long live the king.
Aladdin (2019) on the other hand is golden. After a great Memorial Day weekend it holds steady to keep raking in the cash. Will Smith and the nice young actors he brought with him are on track to make back their budget and then some. As Avengers: Endgame dips, Disney has another movie come in to pace the box office until Toy Story 4 drops in a couple of weeks. And then in July they have fucking Spider-Man: Far from Home and The Lion King (2019) releasing. The mouse is swinging for the fences this summer and everyone else is just trying to hang on.
Also, this shows the limitations of online buzz. A month ago, the buzz was that Godzilla: King of the Monsters was going to be amazing and crush all before it and that Aladdin was going to flop because Will Smith's Genie was sad and not Robin Williams. Then the reviews came in, and then the box office came in. It's almost like the internet isn't the real world.
Rocketman is here as well. Solid counterprogramming against Godzilla and Aladdin, making nice money against a modest budget, strong reviews and word of mouth. It should hold nicely, though as always we'll see. It is not projected to do Bohemian Rhapsody numbers. Elton John insisted that his biopic have drugs and sex because he's cooler than Freddie Mercury's bandmates, but that R rating generally precludes a major hit. However, there is chatter that Rocketman could at least replicate the awards buzz. I'm glad Dexter Fletcher is getting some face time after the thankless job he did salvaging the smoking crater Bryan Singer left behind.
Parasite is a nice story. Korean movie that won Cannes and then went on to make big money in the Korean box office. Look for it later in the year when people start talking Best International Film Oscar nominations. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum had a solid hold, beating out all other competitors. It's already made its budget back and significantly outgrossed the previous John Wick movies, so it will have momentum going into John Wick: Chapter 4 - Carpe Diem; John Wick Strikes Back (featuring Keanu Reeves).
1: Avatar, $2,787,965,087
2: Avengers: Endgame, $2,714,136,529 (-$73,828,558)
Avengers: Endgame isn't in the top 5 anymore, but it is getting within striking distance of Avatar. It's going to be a grind though. If things continue at their current trajectories, Avengers: Endgame is not going to reach Avatar during it's initial run. Disney isn't going to idly sit by though. Look for a boost as Spider-Man: Far From Home drops as Disney bundles up their MCU movies, and for a re-release down the line with 10 minutes of deleted scenes or some shit.
Other stories include Ma pulling in a nice sum of cash on a shoestring budget (Octavia Spencer as a horror movie villain), Detective Pikachu closing in on $400m+ worldwide, and Booksmart making decent money for its probably tiny budget but all the online ink spilled hasn't pushed the movie forward at all. Refer above to me saying the internet isn't the real world.
Next week we have Dark Phoenix, the glorious culmination that is setting off some warning signs by pushing the review embargo so late. They're not even going to screen the movie for critics in China. Is Disney building anticipation, or burying the vestiges of the FoX-Men? We also have The Secret Life of Pets 2 which should do well.
1: Avengers: Endgame (=) / $2,714,136,529
2: Captain Marvel (=) / $1,127,549,584
3: The Wandering Earth (=) / $692,163,684
4: How to Train Your Dragon 3 (=) / $519,430,770
5: Aladdin (2019) (NEW) / $449,850,077
6: Alita: Battle Angel (-1) / $404,852,543
7: Pokémon: Detective Pikachu (=) / $393,490,093
8: Shazam! (-1) / $362,577,579
9: Dumbo (2019) (-1) / $350,102,657
10: Crazy Alien (-1) / $326,150,303
More movement, as Detective Pikachu keeps working their way up the list and Aladdin jumps in at #5. Depending on the legs it has from here, it's a chance to knock off The Wandering Earth and hit #3. At least until the other Disney movies arrive and sweep the board. There's a solid chance that by the end of summer, Disney will have something like 1: Endgame, 2: Lion King, 3: Spider-Man, 4: Captain Marvel, 5: Toy Story 4, 6: Aladdin. I feel bad for their 2020 slate that has to try and compete with that.
We say goodbye to Pegasus, and will probably also be waving goodbye to most of the bottom half of the chart in the coming weeks. It's been real, Dumbo (2019). They'll remember you on Disney+.
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Post by Roy Batty's Pet Dove on Jun 4, 2019 1:07:37 GMT -5
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oppy all along
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Post by oppy all along on Jun 4, 2019 3:53:40 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2019 10:52:13 GMT -5
It doesn't matter how much money King of Monsters makes, filming on Godzilla vs Kong has already been wrapped for months. It will be coming out no matter what! I still find it hilarious that people tricked studios into thinking Godzilla should get a big budget production, it really is a niche film series. Kaiju and Tokusatsu are hilariously niche interests. The fact is, Godzilla 98 would have never happened if not for Juarissc Park. And due to the reboot heavy culture of the 2010s, it is mainly what drove the idea of bring Godzilla back to hollywood. Sure, the idea of Godzilla might sound fun to most people, but I still surmise most people havent seen more than like two of the Toho Godzilla films.
King of the Monsters was basically a big budget heisei era Toho Godzilla and that is why I fucking loved it. It's awesome to see that people were able to get 4 big budget Kaiju films made before the roof collapsed. Really, though it is a shame we will never get a big budget Godzilla vs Mechagodzilla. But maybe Godzilla vs Kong will have a great rebound.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Jun 4, 2019 11:35:18 GMT -5
So this film originated in France in late 2017, where it did marginal business (but a lot more business than it did here). I don't know any specifics here, but it seems highly likely that the theatrical release was simply to fulfill contractual obligations. It's likely that most, if not all of those 20 theaters screened it only once daily, probably at an early matinee, and there was no advertising other than the poster and the film's appearance in the theaters' listings.
The film now appears to be available to rent or purchase from several streaming services, like Amazon and YouTube. I'm willing to bet that enough parents are willing to shell out the rental or purchase money so their 5-year-old can be entertained for about an hour to more than cover whatever it cost to hire Justin Long and Kate Mara to provide the English dub.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Jun 6, 2019 17:16:45 GMT -5
Once everyone realized that the Marvel Cinematic Universe was a license to print money, every studio in town wanted in on the action. Unfortunately, it turns out that building cinematic universes is really hard, and that the MCU might just be a fluke. The latest experiment to crash and burn is WB's Monsterverse, whose third entry, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, proved to be anything but. While it did open at #1, its $47.8 million is barely half of what 2014's Godzilla took in on its opening weekend, and well off what the second entry, Kong: Skull Island, made in its first weekend in March 2017. What's more, 2014's Godzilla, despite being well-received, barely doubled its opening weekend gross during the rest of its run. If the not nearly as well received King of the Monsters falls off that pace, it could finish below $100 million.
Under normal circumstances, this would be the end of the line for Godzilla, at least until the next reboot, though another solo Kong movie might be in the offering. However, since we're in the cinematic universe era, WB already has Godzilla vs. Kong set for release in March. Ironically, its currently scheduled to open against The Invisible Man, which once upon a time was going to be an entry in Universal's now-cancelled Dark Universe, but is now a low-budget entry from Blumhouse (more on them later). It's likely to be far more profitable in this incarnation.
In this post-holiday weekend, almost every holdover title in the Top 10 saw half their grosses from last weekend disappear. Aladdin was no exception, but the Will Smith-fronted remake of the classic 1992 animated title still was able to take in $42.8 million, to conjure up a 10-day total of $185.5 million. That puts it only $30 million behind the final gross of the 1992 movie, and Al'19 should pass Al'92 sometime in the next week or so (usual disclaimer that $215 million in 1992 is a lot more impressive than $215 million in 2019). At this point, Aladdin is looking unlikely to earn $100 million for each wish, but it will come fairly close.
Opening in third is the Elton John biopic Rocketman, which burned out its fuse to the tune of $25.7 million. While there's no call yet to say goodbye to the yellow brick road, it is only half of what Bohemian Rhapsody took in last November, and also off from A Star is Born's opening. One can justify those by pointing out that Bohemian was PG-13 to Rocketman's R, and that Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga are considerably bigger draws than Taron Egerton. Still, it seems likely that Bohemian will retain its titles as both the highest-grossing biopic of a musician and the highest-grossing film with an LGBT protagonist. The good news is that Rocketman is not poised to live its life like a candle in the wind. With Long Shot and Poms almost gone, and The Hustle about to join them, Rocketman is really the only wide release title right now that is solidly aimed at adults that's not horror or action. Plus, there's not much competition on the horizon, with only Late Night in a couple of weeks and Yesterday at the end of the month providing direct competition. So, I think it's gonna be a long, long time till touchdown brings it round outside the Top 10, oh no no no.
Blumhouse has quietly become one of Hollywood's most successful production houses, thanks to producing a series of low-budget horror tiles that prove enormously popular. It's latest hit is Ma, starring Octavia Spencer in a rare leading role, that opened to $18.1 million. Blumhouse's own Truth or Dare opened to roughly this amount last year and finished north of $41 million. Escape Room, which was not a Blumhouse title, opened to a similar number in January and did nearly $60 million. With no other horror titles on the horizon, Ma should be able to finish somewhere between those two numbers.
In 5th, John Wick: Chapter 3--Parabellum earned another $11.1 million to bring its total to $125.7 million. It's losing altitude much faster than the first two John Wick movies, but given that it looks like its going to exceed the combined gross of those two films, I don't think Lionsgate is all that troubled by the quick fade. In 6th is another movie whose fast fade is probably not of much concern to the studio. Admittedly, falling under $10 million a weekend by week 6, to $8 million, is probably not what Disney was hoping Avengers: Endgame would do. But given that its already at $815.7 million, I think Disney will survive.
In 7th, Pokemon Detective Pikachu actually held up the best of the holdover titles in the Top 10, losing slightly less than half of last week's gross to $7 million. It has now grossed $131 million. While Booksmart's fall wasn't any worse than any other title, all those stories last week about what a box office disappointment it was probably didn't help its hopes of maybe eking out some legs with a second weekend gross of $3.3 million and a ten-day total of $14.3 million.
In 9th, Brightburn fell like a typical horror movie, which isn't good when you start so slowly to begin with. It took in $2.5 million for a ten-day total of $14.4 million. The Hustle wraps up the Top 10 with $1.3 million, to bring its total to $33.2 million. It's going to finish below the opening weekend of Anne Hathaway's con-woman comedy from last year, Ocean's Eight.
This weekend brings out two new wide releases. The Secret Life of Pets 2 is the followup to the 2016 animated comedy, which became the first animated non-sequel to open north of $100 million, on its way to $368.4 million, enough to make it Illumination's highest-grossing film, beating out Despicable Me 2 by a few hundred thousand. This one brings back nearly the entire original cast of the first film with the understandable exception of Louis C.K., who is replaced by Patton Oswalt. Also joining the voice cast is Harrison Ford. With Aladdin still racking up big numbers, I don't expect Pets to open as high as the first one did, but I do suspect it will make more than enough to be #1 for the weekend.
Also opening is Dark Phoenix, the latest X-Men film that is widely expected to bring the 19-year, 10-film franchise (not including the Deadpool movies) to a close. The problem is that the franchise already had a finale with Logan, and there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for what appears to be a rehash of the plot of X-Men: The Last Stand. Dark Phoenix stands a real chance of being the first X-Men movie to open below $50 million. We'll see if it can rally, and maybe even outperform Secret Life of Pets 2, in the next few days.
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Post by oppy all along on Jun 13, 2019 1:34:31 GMT -5
Worldwide Box Office for Jun 7-91: Dark Phoenix, $139,828,348, $139,828,348 (NEW) 2: Aladdin (2019), $92,280,968, $607,602,259 (=, -24%) 3: The Secret Life of Pets 2, $62,652,680, $96,577,680 (NR, +264%) 4: Godzilla: King of the Monsters, $62,550,407, $294,507,504 (-3, -65%) 5: Rocketman, $26,816,016, $101,614,772 (-2, -40%) I made a mistake last week and probably before that, counting Rocketman as a new release when it had opened in international markets two weeks before releasing in America. So this week the numbers should be right. Until I find another weakness in my patchwork methodology of finding things other people say and typing them as my own. In the first of the three 'yikes' this week, Dark Phoenix pulled in a deeply disappointing haul. A disastrous domestic box office was prettied up by a (still disappointing) holiday weekend in China, but this is going to need to have deeply surprising legs to make back its budget. It's tough, pretty much everything that could have gone wrong for this movie did go wrong - troubled production with reshoots, negative buzz, X-Men Apocalypse sucking, Disney buying Fox midway through production. The budget is reported as $200 million, and going by the general rule that you need between x2.5 to x3 multiplier Dark Phoenix probably isn't going to make it. The Disney/FoX-Men may be going out with a whimper, but Aladdin (2019) has been going brilliantly. A strong opening in Japan and positive word of mouth has kept things motoring along. There is talk that Aladdin could potentially join the $1b club if things keep going like this. Another hit for struggling underdog studio Disney. Second 'yikes', The Secret Life of Pets 2 didn't bomb like Dark Phoenix but has definitely underperformed relative to The Secret Life of Pets. The saving grace for the animated feature is that despite striking gold with the original they didn't massively inflate the budget ($80m). That's the key to making money these days, reasonable budgets. Blumhouse is getting by entirely on making horror movies that people are kind of interested in and cost nothing to make. Also, staggered international release means that there's plenty of territories left to hit. Maybe it wasn't fair giving this a yikes, but rule of three, y'know? Yikes, Godzilla: King of the Monsters is not looking very good at all. Last week I said it needed massive legs here or overseas, and it has not achieved either. Dark Phoenix and Godzilla 2 stunk up the joint in China on a holiday weekend, and Japan is more enamoured with Prince Ali than King of the Monsters. Already the rumblings are coming in, that Godzilla vs Kong " might come out later in the year, so we can deliver an A+ movie". This is where the road to panic-induced development hell begins. Warner Bros just needs one franchise to come through. Just one. *all eyes turn to Matt Reeves's 'Batman'* Rocketman, as befitting a critically acclaimed movie for old people that features explicit homosexuality and drug use, isn't making a lot of money but is making it consistently. Fun story, Rocketman isn't releasing in my ancestral homeland of Samoa because they are very homophobic there. It's not easy being the first Hollywood movie to feature on-screen gay sex. In other movie news other movies kept along their established trajectories, including Avengers: Endgame's pursuit of Avatar. Parasite joins the ranks of international critically acclaimed movies being lucrative. 1: Avatar, $2,787,965,087 2: Avengers: Endgame, $2,731,411,643 ( -$56,553,444) Next week we have Men in Black: International, which should be set for success with the cast of Thor: Ragnarok but the early news is not positive, and Shaft (2019), shut yo mouth. And then two weeks away, Toy Story 4. All early indicators suggest Woody and Buzz will descend upon an underperforming box office to lay waste to all that lies before them. So if you're Disney you're probably looking forward to that. 2019 Worldwide Box Office1: Avengers: Endgame (=) / $2,714,136,529 2: Captain Marvel (=) / $1,127,549,584 3: The Wandering Earth (=) / $692,163,684 4: Aladdin (2019) (+1) / $607,602,259 5: How to Train Your Dragon 3 (-1) / $519,556,005 6: Pokémon: Detective Pikachu (+1) / $411,398,871 7: Alita: Battle Angel (-1) / $404,852,543 8: Shazam! (=) / $362,939,187 9: Dumbo (2019) (=) / $350,546,701 10: Crazy Alien (=) / $326,150,303 Aladdin keeps moving up the charts and now has The Wandering Earth in its sights. Pikachu climbed to 6th as well and this is probably as high as it gets. In the background we have Godzilla lumbering along to temporarily claim one of the lower ranks next week. I'm not tipping it to reach $400m worldwide though.
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Post by Roy Batty's Pet Dove on Jun 13, 2019 3:21:14 GMT -5
If one of your questions was: "Is it possible that this was actually a really good movie on par with the works of Miyazaki, or the Golden Age of Pixar, or the Disney Renaissance, or that animated Spiderman movie, or the works of Lotte Reiniger, or Akira, and that it should have grossed hundreds of millions of dollars?" then the answer is "I doubt it; the film's quality may be ambiguous from that poster, but this trailer does not look promising." If one of your questions was: "Are we talking domestic total or worldwide total? Perhaps this film did really, really well in the international market," then the answer is "Domestically it had grossed 220 American dollars as of January 24, 2019 C.E. Perhaps it did do really, really well internationally, but I can't find any data supporting or not supporting that theory." If one of your questions was: "Is Kate Mara related to the famous actress Rooney Mara?" the answer is "Unless Wikipedia is lying, yes." If one of your questions was: "How much would it set me back to be able to watch this danged movie myself?" then the answer is "2.99 American dollars". If your follow-up question is "Do you plan to watch this movie?" then the answer is "Absolutely." If one of your questions was: "Why does that...bee?...on the movie poster only have four limbs instead of six, and why doesn't it have compound eyes, and where did it find a milliner who would make a hat small enough for it to fit?" then the answer is "I don't know, but I agree that the degree of anthropomorphism on display is complete fucking bullshit." |
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Post by Nudeviking on Jun 13, 2019 3:26:06 GMT -5
If one of your questions was: "Is it possible that this was actually a really good movie on par with the works of Miyazaki, or the Golden Age of Pixar, or the Disney Renaissance, or that animated Spiderman movie, or the works of Lotte Reiniger, or Akira, and that it should have grossed hundreds of millions of dollars?" then the answer is "I doubt it; the film's quality may be ambiguous from that poster, but this trailer does not look promising." If one of your questions was: "Are we talking domestic total or worldwide total? Perhaps this film did really, really well in the international market," then the answer is "Domestically it had grossed 220 American dollars as of January 24, 2019 C.E. Perhaps it did do really, really well internationally, but I can't find any data supporting or not supporting that theory." If one of your questions was: "Is Kate Mara related to the famous actress Rooney Mara?" the answer is "Unless Wikipedia is lying, yes." If one of your questions was: "How much would it set me back to be able to watch this danged movie myself?" then the answer is "2.99 American dollars". If your follow-up question is "Do you plan to watch this movie?" then the answer is "Absolutely." If one of your questions was: "Why does that...bee?...on the movie poster only have four limbs instead of six, and why doesn't it have compound eyes, and where did it find a milliner who would make a hat small enough for it to fit it?" then the answer is "I don't know, but I agree that the degree of anthropomorphism is fucking bullshit." He lost his other two limbs in a horrific scene early on in the movie where a kid with an eyepatch pulls them off with a pair of tweezers. |
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