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Post by MarkInTexas on Aug 20, 2017 23:59:36 GMT -5
As the kids go back to school and the sun is eaten (briefly) by the moon, the movies begin to turn more serious. Gone are the superheroes (at least until November), in are serious movies that want to win Oscars. Over the next few weeks, I'll be previewing every wide release and numerous limited releases over the next four months. For wide releases, I'll give a brief description based on the trailer and other material, as well as a prediction for the film's domestic box office ($--no chance at earning $100 million domestic, $$--outside shot at $100 million domestic, $$$--decent to excellent shot at $100 million domestic, $$$$--guaranteed to earn at least $100 million domestic) as well as its chances at getting an Oscar nomination in major categories (directing, acting, writing, and Best Picture. O--no shot at a major Oscar nomination, OO--outside shot at major Oscar nominations, OOO--strong shot at major Oscar nominations, OOOO--almost guaranteed to get major Oscar nominations). I'll do the same for the limited releases, except without the box office predictions.
September wide releases will arrive later this week.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Aug 25, 2017 2:51:39 GMT -5
September Wide Releases
September 1
Close Encounters of the Third Kind--Not a remake or a reboot, but something exceedingly rare these days--a wide re-release of Steven Spielberg's 1977 sci-fi classic, starring Richard Dreyfuss as an ordinary guy who, after encountering a UFO, finds himself inexplicably drawn to Devils Tower. Doot-doot-doot-doot-doot.
$--Given the movie is 40 years old and is widely available on DVD and Blu-Ray, it seems unlikely to attract a huge audience. Sadly, the days of a re-release making well over $100 million, like the Star Wars re-release 20 years ago, are long gone.
O--It was nominated for 8 Oscars back in 1978, winning for Cinematography (it probably would have won several others most other years, but in the tech awards, it ran into the buzzsaw of Star Wars. Of course, it is ineligible to be nominated in 2017.
Tulip Fever--An artist (Dane DeHaan) begins an affair with his latest subject (Alicia Vikander), the unhappy wife of a much older businessman (Christoph Waltz), during the Dutch 16th century tulip craze. The film was shot back in 2014, and has been bouncing around the release schedule ever since.
$--This is the second consecutive Labor Day that a one-time prestige project starring Vikander is getting dumped. The Light Between Oceans topped out at $12.5 million domestic, a total that Tulip Fever will probably end up looking up toward.
O--The Weinsteins, the most Oscar-obsessed producers in the business, undoubtedly greenlit this picture hoping it would win a raft of them. The fact they waited 3 1/2 years to release it on Labor Day should tell you everything you need to know about its award chances.
September 8
Home Again--Recent divorcee Reese Witherspoon has a one-night stand with a much younger man (Nat Wolff), then invites him and his two friends to move in to serve as father figures to her daughters. This first-world problem movie is the directorial debut of Hallie Meyers-Shyer, daughter of Charles Shyer, director of first-world problem movies like Baby Boom and Father of the Bride, and Nancy Meyers, director of first-world problem movies like Something's Gotta Give and It's Complicated.
$$--Witherspoon's box-office clout has long faded, but she did have a comeback this year thanks to Big Little Lies, and the utter lack of any other female-driven comedies for weeks on end may give this one a boost.
O--Witherspoon will likely be attending the Emmys in mid-September. She should enjoy the ceremony, since she won't be at the next Oscars, at least as a nominee.
It--After a series of violent incidents in their town, a group of pre-teens piece together that the entity responsible is a malevolent supernatural figure who takes the form of a clown (Bill Skarsgard). Based on Stephen King's bestseller.
$$$--This is the most anticipated movie of September, if not the first half of the fall. That said, King adaptions have typically been more miss than hit at the box office (see Tower, Dark), and there may be more than a few audience members who balk at seeing graphic violence visited upon children.
OO--A nomination for Skarsgard isn't out of the question, but any other major nods for this seem unlikely.
9/11--In this subtly-titled movie, Charlie Sheen, Gina Gershon, and Luis Guzman find themselves trapped in a World Trade Center elevator on that fateful morning, with Whoopi Goldberg as a building dispatcher trying to save them before...
$--Movies about the events of that day have tended to underperform, even when bankable stars like Nicolas Cage (World Trade Center), Tom Hanks (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) and Adam Sandler (Reign Over Me) are involved. If those actors can't get people into the theater to relive the events of America's worst day of the 21st century, I doubt Charlie Sheen and Whoopi Goldberg can.
O--Once upon a time, Goldberg won an Oscar, and Sheen starred in a Best Picture winner. That won't be happening this year.
September 15
All I See Is You--A blind woman (Blake Lively) regains her sight, and discovers her husband (Jason Clarke) Is Not What He Seemed. Directed by Marc Forster.
$--This premiered last September at the Toronto Film Festival. It's rarely a good sign when it takes a full year for a film to get released.
O--If this one had any shot at Oscar nominations, it would have been out by last December.
American Assassin--After his girlfriend is killed in a terrorist attach, an angry young man (Dylan O'Brien) joins the CIA, where he's trained to become--well, you saw the title. Michael Keaton plays his trainer/mentor/father figure.
$$--From its title on down, this looks incredibly generic, but its the only straightforward action movie of September, which might give it more boxoffice clout than it otherwise might.
O--Not even recent Oscar good luck charm Keaton can get the Academy to notice a generic action movie released in September.
mother!--Jennifer Lawrence plays a young woman who becomes unhinged when her husband (Javier Bardem) invites two strangers (Ed Harris, Michelle Pfeiffer) to stay with them at their remote house. At least that's what the trailer suggests. Director Darren Aronofsky is keeping the actual storyline under wraps as much as possible.
$$$--Lawrence and general curiosity about what the film is about should help drive opening weekend business. If the film turns out to be batshit crazy in a good way (like Aronofsky's Black Swan), this could turn out to be a solid performer.
OOO--With this much talent in front of and behind the camera, Oscar will take notice if the film is good.
September 22
Friend Request--After unfriending an unpopular girl, a college student finds that all her friends are dying, one-by-one. This one has been sitting on the shelf longer than Tulip Fever.
$--With It and mother! out, even horror fans will find it easy to ignore this request.
O--And the Academy will find it even easier.
Kingsman: The Golden Circle--After their headquarters are destroyed, the Kingsman (Taron Egerton, Colin Firth, Mark Strong) must team up with their American counterparts (Jeff Bridges, Channing Tatum, Halle Berry) to take down the latest threat to the world.
$$$--This one boasts 4 Oscar winners in its cast (5, if you count Elton John), which is impressive for any movie, much less an action-comedy sequel. The filmmakers clearly want to equal, if not exceed, the total from the first film, a surprise hit. The competition is tougher this time around, though.
O--No matter how many Oscar winners are in the cast, no major nominations are going to come for an action-comedy sequel released in September.
The Lego Ninjago Movie--Six young ninjas must protect their home from an evil warlord...who happens to be the long-estranged father of one of them. Jackie Chan and Dave Franco provide voices.
$$$--Nearly every animated film has underperformed this year, including The Lego Batman Movie. It might not be the best idea to release another Lego movie so soon, especially one that doesn't have as obvious of a hook as, well, The Lego Batman Movie. Still, with nothing else for the kids for several weeks in either direction, this could still do well, or even reverse the trend.
O--Animated Feature is a possibility, but no other major nominations are.
September 29
American Made--In this true story, Tom Cruise plays Barry Seal, a pilot who was happy to fly anything for anyone who would pay him--whether it be guns, money, or drugs, for the government or the cartels. Doug Liman, who directed Cruise in Edge of Tomorrow, directs.
$$--Edge is the only non-Mission: Impossible Cruise vehicle to make over $100 million domestic in the last 12 years. But that was a summer sci-fi actioner, and this is a September crime drama (with a lot of comedy mixed in). That might attract an audience, but not a huge one.
OO--Liman is probably overdue for Oscar recognition, but getting it for this seems like a longshot.
Flatliners--In this remake/sequel, a group of medical students, including Ellen Page, put themselves to death for a few minutes to see what's on the other side. Bad things happen. Kiefer Sutherland, who co-starred in the 1990 original and is apparently playing the same character, is on hand to tell them why what they're doing is a very bad idea.ts
$--The original was a minor late-summer hit, but it also co-starred Julia Roberts coming off Pretty Woman. Page is a very talented actress, but she doesn't have anywhere near the box office power Roberts had.
O--The 1990 version got a nomination for Sound Effects Editing. I'm willing to bet that is one more nomination that this version is going to get.
Til Death Do Us Part--A woman flees from her controlling husband and begins a new life in a new town. Everything is idyllic, until he tracks her down. Speaking of remakes of Julia Roberts movies of the early 90s...
$--African-American thrillers tend to do strong business in September. This one is from new distributor Novus, instead of than Screen Gems, which released When the Bough Breaks, The Perfect Guy, and No Good Deed in previous years, which might have an effect on the grosses.
O--If the new Flatliners is unlikely to get any major nominations, neither is the new Sleeping With the Enemy.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Aug 26, 2017 21:39:03 GMT -5
October Wide Releases
October 6
Blade Runner 2049--For the third time in the last ten years, Harrison Ford returns to a role he last played in the 80s, this time as former blade runner Rick Deckard, who, after deliberately disappearing after the events of the first film, is found by new blade runner Ryan Gosling, who is trying to uncover a conspiracy involving the very evil-seeming Jared Leto. Denis Villeneuve directs, since Ridley Scott (who is an executive producer) was too busy working on another sci-fi revival from roughly the same time period.
$$--The original Blade Runner may be a sci-fi classic, but it's also a film that much of the target audience has never seen, which might make potential audience members reluctant to turn out.
OO--Even with Villeneuve at the helm, a 30-years-later sci-fi sequel isn't something the Academy usually takes note of. Then again, I would have said much the same thing about Mad Max: Fury Road.
The Mountain Between Us--When their chartered plane crashes on top of a remote mountain, a journalist (Kate Winslet) and a doctor (Idris Elba) have to work together to survive the ordeal.
$$--With the cold, snowy exteriors, desperate fight for survival, and a star of Titanic, this brings to mind The Revenant, which was a surprise smash last year. It seems unlikely that this will replicate the success of that film, but survivalist tales do frequently earn good money.
OOO--Winslet is almost always in the Oscar mix, and Elba is overdue for a nomination. If watching the film brings up too many memories of The Revenant (or Cast Away or Gravity), though, that could sink the film's chances at major awards.
My Little Pony--When Equestria is invaded by a ruthless, evil pony (voiced by Emily Blunt), Princess Twilight Sparkle and her friends seek help in order to save the kingdom.
$--Feature films of animated TV shows made either while the show was still in production or had recently ended has a mixed record. Spongebob, The Simpsons, and Rugrats successfully made the leap. Powerpuff Girls, Hey Arnold, and Recess, among others, didn't. The problem for My Little Pony is that this probably arrives a few years too late to become a blockbuster.
O--If The Simpsons couldn't get an Animated Feature nomination, neither will this.
October 13
The Foreigner--After his daughter is killed in a bombing in London, a Chinese national (Jackie Chan) becomes convinced that a government official (Pierce Brosnan) knows who is responsible, and will do whatever it takes to find out the truth. Directed by Martin Campbell, who directed Brosnan playing a much more virtuous government agent in GoldenEye.
$$--This is definitely a change of pace role for Chan, whose English-language films have been typically much lighter. Also, given his age, he appears to rely much less on his fists and more on conventional weapons. How much that will affect the box office remains to be seen.
O--Chan won an honorary Oscar earlier this year, and might be going for a competitive one here. Unfortunately, it's highly unlikely he'll get nominated.
Happy Death Day--What if, in Groundhog Day, Bill Murray played a female college student (Jessica Rothe)? And instead of ending each repeated day by simply going to sleep, Murray got brutally murdered by a masked killer every night? And to make it the next day, Murray had to solve his own murder?
$$--Time loop films seem like a dime a dozen these days, but while I'm sure it's been done somewhere else, trying to solve your own murder does seem like a clever twist. Combine that with the Friday the 13th opening, the PG-13 rating, and the three playing weekends before Halloween, and this could be a real sleeper.
O--If Groundhog Day didn't get any Oscar nominations, Groundhog Day, But With Murder! won't either.
Marshall--Chadwick Boseman, who already has played Jackie Robinson and James Brown, plays another African-American icon, Thurgood Marshall, here as a young attorney whose equally adapt with his fists as with his mind, defending a laborer who may or may not have attacked a socialite. Directed by Reginald Hudson, his first feature film in 15 years.
$--Neither of Boseman's prior biopics made it to $100 million domestic, and there's not really any reason to think this one will, either.
OO--It's a bad idea to assume that a fall biopic has no shot at major nominations. However, this looks more like a twisty thriller and less like the "great man" profile that the Academy likes.
October 20
Geostorm--Filmed so long ago that it was greenlit when Gerard Butler was considered a bankable star, Gerard Butler stars as a maverick scientist who has to go to space to turn off the world's weather control satellites, which have started creating massive worldwide storms that could kill off the entire planet. The directorial debut of Dean Devlin, who produced a number of Roland Emmerich's movies, so he knows a thing or two about worldwide mass destruction.
$--Back in 2004, Emmerich had a hit with The Day After Tomorrow, in which bad weather did indeed destroy the world. Devlin didn't produce that, which is a shame, since it might have spared us this.
O--There's a better chance of snow falling in Miami in July than this getting any nominations.
Only the Brave--The true story of the Granite Mountain Hotshots, an elite firefighting team of the Prescott, Arizona fire department, whose battle against a wildfire in 2013 lead to multiple fatalities. Jeff Bridges, Josh Brolin, and Miles Teller are some of the members of the unit, and Jennifer Connelly and Andie MacDowell play firefighter wives.
$--People tend to avoid movies about recent real-life tragedies, as the producers of last year's Deepwater Horizon and Patriot's Day could tell you. The Yarnell Hill disaster is mush less remembered, however, than the Boston marathon bombing and the oil rig explosion, which might work in its favor.
OO--Dramas based on true stories are almost always made with award season in mind. This seems like obvious Oscar bait, but films like this run the risk of emphasizing the action over the story, damaging its chances.
Same Kind of Different As Me--A rich couple on the verge of divorce (Greg Kinnear, Renee Zellweger) befreind a magical Negro homeless African-American man (Djimon Hounsou), and wonderful things start happening for them. For other people as well, but mostly for them.
$--The last time Kinnear starred in a Christian film, Heaven is for Real grossed $90 million domestic. It seems unlikely that this will do that much business, but with its vastly overqualified cast, this could do a lot better than a glurgey film about how a black guy existed so white people could be saved ever should, especially in 2017.
O--I have a feeling that Hounsou deserves a nomination just for keeping a straight face during production, but it seems likely that even if he delivers a touching performance, the Academy won't touch this one with a ten-foot pole.
The Snowman--A serial killer is targeting the women of Oslo, and it's up to detectives Michael Fassbender and Rebecca Ferguson to piece the clues together before the killer strikes again.
$--The last dark Scandinavian thriller adapted into an English-language film, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, underperfomed at the box office, despite being based on a much-buzzed-about bestseller and starring a more bankable actor in Daniel Craig. It's hard to see this film outpeforming Tattoo.
OO--Fassbender is always a possible contender, but disturbing thrillers are not usually major award contenders.
Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween--In the fall's most awkwardly-titled film, Perry once again puts on the housedress to battle the neighboring fraternity for her grandniece for the second consecutive Halloween. Except this year, the ghouls might be real (but probably aren't).
$--After A Madea Christmas flopped, it looked like the series was finally running out of steam, but no, America had to go turn A Madea Halloween into a $73 million hit. We can only hope everyone learned their lesson since last year.
O--Yes, Perry was actually a dark horse a few years ago to get a nomination for Gone Girl. At least with this, he has a solid shot of picking up another Razzie.
October 27
Jigsaw--Proving that no franchise can stay dead in 2017, Saw is back seven years after the franchise sputtered to a close, with more Rube Goldbergesque murder contraptions and more victims being forced to learn to appreciate life moments before being cut into tiny shreds.
$--As the only hard-R horror movie out this Halloween, this might have a pretty decent opening. The history of the franchise suggests that not many tickets are going to be sold after November 1, though.
O--Even if the members of the Academy were strapped to their own Rube Goldbergesque murder contraptions until Nomination morning, this still wouldn't be recognized.
Suburbicon--After his wife is killed in a break-in, a seemingly ordinary suburban man (Matt Damon) finds himself in increasingly violent situations, along with his sister-in-law (Julianne Moore). Directed by George Clooney, who clearly took careful notes during his collaborations with the Coens (who co-wrote the screenplay).
$$--The good cast should ensure a pretty good opening weekend, but after that it runs into the buzzsaw of holiday movies. It will need excellent word-of-mouth.
OOO--Nearly anything the Coens touch is instant Oscar bait, and throw in Clooney, Damon, and Oscar Isaac, and this could be an Oscar sleeper.
Thank You For Your Service--Miles Teller is an Iraq veteran who, along with his fellow soldiers, finds himself suffering from PTSD after returning from a tour in Iraq.
$--With the very notable exception of American Sniper, movies about the Iraq War have tended to underperform (including Oscar winner The Hurt Locker). With Teller already in one depressing movie this October in Only the Brave, there might not be much of an audience left for this.
OO--Teller could be in line for a nomination, but this feels similar to the higher profile Last Flag Flying, which could easily steal all of this film's thunder.
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Post by Roy Batty's Pet Dove on Aug 26, 2017 22:39:50 GMT -5
9/11--In this subtly-titled movie, Charlie Sheen, Gina Gershon, and Luis Guzman find themselves trapped in a World Trade Center elevator on that fateful morning, with Whoopi Goldberg as a building dispatcher trying to save them before... $--Movies about the events of that day have tended to underperform, even when bankable stars like Nicolas Cage ( World Trade Center), Tom Hanks ( Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) and Adam Sandler ( Reign Over Me) are involved. If those actors can't get people into the theater to relive the events of America's worst day of the 21st century, I doubt Charlie Sheen and Whoopi Goldberg can. O--Once upon a time, Goldberg won an Oscar, and Sheen starred in a Best Picture winner. That won't be happening this year. Is 9/11 a Truther movie? Because Sheen is a Truther, right? |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2017 11:37:24 GMT -5
Friend Request--After unfriending an unpopular girl, a college student finds that all her friends are dying, one-by-one. This one has been sitting on the shelf longer than Tulip Fever. $--With It and mother! out, even horror fans will find it easy to ignore this request. O--And the Academy will find it even easier.  |
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Post by MarkInTexas on Aug 31, 2017 15:29:29 GMT -5
Is 9/11 a Truther movie? Because Sheen is a Truther, right? I have no idea. I do know it's being released by the distribution company that got set up to release Atlas Shrugged Parts 2 & 3. |
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Post by MarkInTexas on Aug 31, 2017 15:30:46 GMT -5
I liked the first, much more subtle poster better. This looks like every other horror movie poster ever. |
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Post by MarkInTexas on Sept 1, 2017 0:39:46 GMT -5
November Wide Releases
November 3
A Bad Moms Christmas--The original was a surprise hit comedy about the joys and stresses of parenthood, and the holiday-set sequel reunites the first film's stars (Mila Kunis, Kristin Bell, Kathyrn Hahn) as they have to deal with the arrival of their own parents (Christine Baranski, Cheryl Hines, Susan Sarandon). Christmas-themed hijinks should abound.
$$$--The first film made over $100 million domestic, and even though it will be competing with another comedy sequel with a surprisingly similar (though more family friendly) plot, this should play well through Thanksgiving and into December.
O--The first film wasn't nominated for anything. Even though this time the cast includes an Oscar winner (Sarandon) and a Emmy and Tony winner (Baranski), this one won't be nominated for anything, either.
Thor: Ragnarok--The Thor movies have been somewhat the red-headed stepchild of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise to be tolerated while waiting for the new Iron Man or Captain America. But there is genuine excitment for this third installment, which sees Thor (Chris Hemsworth) battle Hela, the Goddess of Death (Cate Blanchette, wearing a funky headpiece) with the help of the Hulk (Mark Ruffalo) and even Loki (Tom Hiddleston). Also, Jeff Goldblum is in it, seemingly at his most Jeff Goldblumiest.
$$$$--That this will make lots of money is a given (no MCU movie has made less than $134 million domestic). The question is not whether it will be the highest-grossing Thor movie, which already seems to be a given, but whether it will be a true blockbuster, on the level of Iron Man or Guardians of the Galaxy
O--Blanchette looks like she's having a ball in the trailer. That won't get her, nor anyone else, anywhere close to an Oscar for this.
November 10
Daddy's Home 2--The original was a surprise hit comedy about the joys and stresses of parenthood, and the holiday-set sequel reunites the first film's stars (Will Ferrell, Mark Wahlberg) as they have to deal with the arrival of their own parents (John Lithgow, Mel Gibson). Christmas-themed hijinks should abound.
$$$--The first film made over $100 million domestic, and even though it will be competing with another comedy sequel with a surprisingly similar (though less family friendly) plot, this should play well through Thanksgiving and into December.
O--The first film wasn't nominated for anything. Even though this time the cast includes an Oscar winner (Gibson) and a Emmy and Tony winner (Lithgow), this one won't be nominated for anything, either.
Murder on the Orient Express--When a passenger is brutally killed onboard the famous train, it is up to legendary detective Herclue Poirot (Kenneth Branagh, who both directs and sports the most impressive cinematic mustache since Kurt Russell in The Hateful Eight) to figure out which other passenger--almost none of whom seem to have any connection to the victim--wanted him dead. Based on the Agatha Christie novel.
$$--The list of actors playing suspects is impressive (Michelle Pfeiffer, Judi Dench, Penelope Cruz, Daisy Ridley, among many others), but none of them are exactly box office draws these days. Still, amid the comedies, action, and animated offerings, this stands out as the only adult drama.
OO--This looks to be more of a contender for the tech awards, but it seems likely that at least a couple of members of the supporting cast will be Supporting possibilities.
November 17
Justice League--Take The Avengers, substitute DC's heroes and villains for Marvel's, set the whole thing at night, and make it extra gritty. Directed by Zack Snyder, which an assist from The Avengers's own Joss Whedon, who took over after Snyder was forced to leave due to a family tragedy.
$$$$--This was getting 4 dollar signs anyway, but Warner execs have to be breathing a sigh of relief that Wonder Woman was such a well-liked smash. Except Gal Gadot to be front and center of the advertising campaign this fall.
O--Speaking of Wonder Woman, if any superhero film this year is going to get major award consideration, its that one and not Justice League. And Wonder Woman will not be getting any major award consideration.
The Star--A group of animals, including the camels of the Three Wise Men and the donkey of Mary and Joseph, discover King Herod's plot against the newborn Baby Jesus and conspire to save Him, which seems like a rather grim plot for an animated Christmas comedy.
$$$--This might not have been the best political climate for Pixar to release a film about the Mexican Day of the Dead, so don't be surprised to hear a lot of conservative and Christian types implore parents to take their kids to see this and not Coco over Thanksgiving. Even if that doesn't happen, the holiday plot might give it some unexpected box office strength, even if Coco is a buzzsaw.
O--I'm not sure the Baby Jesus Himself could get this film nominated for any major awards.
Wonder--A boy with severe facial deformities (Jacob Tremblay) enters public school for the first time, and teaches the entire school a lesson in being kind and true to yourself. Julia Roberts and Owen Wilson play his parents, and Daveed Diggs and Mandy Patinkin are two of the teachers at the school.
$$$--There's a decent chance this could end up being pure glurge, but there's also a decent chance that this could end up being The Blind Side for 2017. These two possibilities are not mutually exclusive.
OO--A lot of people thought Tremblay deserved an Oscar nomination for Room. He probably won't get a makeup nomination here, but if the film truly catches fire, it becoming a major contender is certainly not off the table.
November 22
Coco--In Pixar's latest, a young boy finds himself magically transported to the Land of the Dead, despite not actually being dead. His ancestors have to help him get back to the world of the living.
$$$$--As mentioned above, this might not be the best political climate to release a movie about Mexico or the Day of the Dead. That shouldn't stop it from becoming a huge blockbuster.
OOO--Eight Pixar movies have been nominated for their screenplays. There's no reason to think that Coco won't be a strong contender to become the ninth.
Death Wish--After his wife's murder, a man (Bruce Willis) becomes a vigilante, tracking down and executing criminals that the law can't touch, in what may be the most vivid cinematic realization of the fantasies that NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre masturbates to. Directed by Eli Roth.
$$--The same conservative commentators who will encourage people to take their kids to see The Star will probably also encourage people to see this, hopefully without the kids.
O--This has a surprisingly decent cast (Elisabeth Shue, Vincent D'Onofrio, Dean Norris), but that won't impress the Academy.
Molly's Game--Jessica Chastain is Molly, and the game is poker. More specifically, the game is the ultra-exclusive poker game she ran until she was busted by the feds. Idris Elba plays her lawyer, Michael Cera is a movie star whose a regular at her game, and Kevin Costner plays her father. The directorial debut of Aaron Sorkin.
$$--The poker craze peaked about ten years ago, but it seems about the right time for aughts nostalgia to start kicking in. Besides, if Sorkin can direct half as well as he can write, this could be a very fun night at the movies.
OO--A Sorkin screenplay is always going to be a writing contender, but its chances (and, for that matter, the chances of Chastian) depend on how good the overall film is.
Villa Capri--A resort manager who is a former mob lawyer in the Witness Protection Program (Morgan Freeman) and his chief rival, a former FBI agent (Tommy Lee Jones) reluctantly team up to save the resort's director (Rene Russo), who is kidnapped by some of Freeman's former associates. Ron Sheldon directs, his first time behind the camera since 2003's Hollywood Homicide.
$--Yet another in the seemingly never-ending series of movies starring Freeman as an old, retired guy who goes on one last wild adventure. Oddly, despite their long careers, this is the first time he's co-starred with Jones. That paring probably won't draw too many people to the theater, however.
O--Freeman and Jones each already have an Oscar. This seems unlikely to get them close to a second.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2017 1:05:50 GMT -5
I have no idea. I do know it's being released by the distribution company that got set up to release Atlas Shrugged Parts 2 & 3. Oh. Oh no. |
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Post by MarkInTexas on Sept 2, 2017 23:05:11 GMT -5
December Wide Releases
December 1
Polaroid--The latest entry in the never-ending "teenager finds cursed object, teenager uses cursed object, all teenager's friends die" genre. This time, the cursed object is an old Polaroid camera.
$--The first weekend of December has been a dumping ground for a number of years. Even if this does all right, it won't do that well.
O--There's a better chance of film cameras coming back into style than of this movie winning an Oscar.
December 15
Ferdinand--A bull (John Cena) who just wants to smell the flowers and play with his owner is instead mistaken for a fighting bull, and has to escape before he ends up in the ring.
$$$--I'd be a lot more confident about this if it wasn't opening directly against Star Wars, but it's the only animated movie scheduled for December, and it opens only a few days before millions of kids are out of school for two weeks. It will probably do fine.
O--A nomination for Animated Feature is probably the best this film can hope for.
Star Wars: The Last Jedi--Rey (Daisy Ridley) learns more about who she is as she begins her training under the tutelage of Luke Skywalker (Mark Hamill, who gets to speak this time around). Meanwhile, the Kylo Ren (Adam Driver) and the First Order recover from the loss of Starkiller Base and mount another attack against the Republic.
$$$$--That this will be 2017's highest grossing film is a given. The question is if will top The Force Awakens to become the highest-grossing film of all time in North America, and if it does that, if it will become the first film to top one billion dollars domestically.
O--No Star Wars movies have been nominated for major Oscars since the first one. Unless the Academy wants to honor Carrie Fisher with a Supporting Actress nomination, that is unlikely to change.
December 20
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle--Four teenagers with nothing in common get sucked into the Jumanji video game and into the bodies of Dwayne Johnson, Jack Black, Kevin Hart, and Karen Gillan, where they have to survive the various animals and challenges to return to the real world
$$$--This sequel/reboot is well-cast, but between it and Ferdinand, it seems possible that there's room for only one family film starring a pro wrestler this holiday season. Still, there will be an army of kids out of school who need to be entertained.
O--This one might top the original by earning some technical nominations, but nothing major.
December 22
Bastards--Upon learning that their mom (Glenn Close) has no idea who their dad is, the world's least likely twins since Schwarzenegger/DeVito (Ed Helms and Owen Wilson) set out to meet their mom's former lovers (including Terry Bradshaw, Ving Rhames, and J.K. Simmons) and find out who they came from.
$$--This is the rare movie that gets promoted from the January wilderness to a prime time holiday slot. It probably needs better jokes than what the trailer promises in order to justify the move.
O--Unless the Academy decides that it needs to honor Glenn Close right this instant, this is likely going nowhere, awardwise.
Downsizing--In Adam Sandler's latest vehicle, he and Kristin Wiig play a couple who decide to shrink themselves to 4 inches tall, but...wait a minute, this actually stars Matt Damon? And this is directed by Alexander Payne?!!?
$$--Adam Sandler movies starring Adam Sandler were underperforming before he decided to go work for Netflix. I'm not sure how an Adam Sandler movie not starring Adam Sandler will do.
OOO--Yes, the plot sounds ridiculous, but it's an Alexander Payne film being released in late December. Unless it turns out to be the quality of a typical Adam Sandler movie, the Academy will take notice.
Pitch Perfect 3--Discovering that life after college and a cappella isn't all it's cracked up to be, Beca (Anna Kendrick) and the rest of the Bellas reunite to try to win a USO competition in Europe.
$$$--Outside of maybe Polaroid, this is the only holiday movie aimed squarely at young women. They turned out in force for Pitch Perfect 2, and there's no reason to assume they won't come back out this time.
December 25
The Greatest Showman--Hugh Jackman plays P.T. Barnum in this original musical biopic. Michelle Williams is his wife, and Rebecca Ferguson plays opera star Jenny Lind. Also, Zac Efron is in this for some reason.
$$--There's a lot of competition for family audiences this season, so this will probably need really good word-of-mouth to succeed.
OOO--This type of film is very much up the Academy's alley, so even if it turns out to be relatively mediocre, it could still be a major award contender.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Sept 8, 2017 5:21:02 GMT -5
Selected September Limited Releases
For these limited releases, I'm going to omit the box office predictions and just list whether they are legitimate Oscar contenders or not.
September 8
Rebel in the Rye--A biopic of the first few years of adulthood of author J.D. Salinger (Nicolas Hoult), from his service during World War II, to the publication of his most famous work, Catcher in the Rye. Kevin Spacey plays his mentor, and Victor Garber plays his disapproving father.
O--This film keeps reminding me of Kill Your Darlings, another movie where a young British actor played an American literary genius at the beginning of his career. After receiving a lot of hype, it fizzled out quickly and was never a factor in the awards season. This film is arriving with almost no hype, and will almost certainly meet the same fate.
September 15
Brad's Status--Ben Stiller plays Brad, a middle-aged guy who begins to wonder if his life has been a failure while taking his son (Austin Abrams) on college visits. Michael Sheen and Luke Wilson play two of Brad's old friends. Written and directed by Mike White.
O--White is a talented writer (we'll just pretend he had nothing to do with The Emoji Movie), but his last directorial effort, the Molly Shannon vehicle Year of the Dog, failed to garner any critical enthusiasm. If the Academy wants to nominate Stiller for playing a sad guy, they'll probably go with his work in the much-more-likely-to-be-acclaimed The Meyerowitz Stories.
September 22
Battle of the Sexes--In 1973, Billie Jean King (Emma Stone, the world's best female tennis player, agreed to play Bobby Riggs (Steve Carell), a former Wimbledon champion who believed that that the only thing women should be serving was dinner. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, who directed Carell in Little Miss Sunshine, direct the recreation of their famous match.
OO--It's unwise to dismiss a biopic starring the defending Best Actress winner. But the trailer suggest the filmmakers decided on a more comedic tone, rather than the serious tone that most Oscar biopics have.
Stronger--In another sports-related biopic, Jake Gyllenhaal plays Jeff Bauman, who was waiting for his girlfriend (Tatiana Maslany) to cross the finish line of the Boston Marathon when the bomb went off, costing him his legs. Directed by David Gordon Green.
OO--Gyllenhaal will undoubtedly be a strong contender for Best Actor, but Green's filmography is concerning. His tiny projects are almost all critically acclaimed, while his mainstream films are almost all critically lambasted. This film is definitely more mainstream.
Victoria and Abdul--Judi Dench, who received her first Oscar nomination 20 years ago for playing Queen Victoria in Mrs. Brown, returns to the role, once again in a movie where she develops an unconventional friendship. This time, it is with Abdul (Ali Fazal), a clerk from India, under whose influence she decides to expand her mind and horizons. Directed by Stephen Frears
O--The plot description and the trailer makes this appear to be essentially Mrs. Brown Part 2, with Fazal stepping in for the prior film's Billy Connolly. It's possible that the Academy voters won't have an issue with this virtual remake. But it's also possible that they will.
Woodshock--Kristin Dunst plays a young woman who, after the death of her mother, finds herself addicted to a potentially deadly drug, which leads to numerous hallucinations and other side effects.
O--Dunst will undoubtedly get some buzz for her performance, but it's hard to imagine a potential awards film less up the Academy's alley than this.
September 29
Lucky--In this quirky comedy, Harry Dean Stanton stars as Lucky, a 90-year-old living in a small desert town, who decides its time to confront his own impending morality. Ron Livingston, Ed Begley, Jr., and David Lynch--yes, that David Lynch--provide supporting work. The directorial debut of longtime character actor John Carroll Lynch (no relation).
O--Somehow, despite having a long, distinguished career spanning over 60 years, Stanton has never gotten an Oscar nomination, nor an Emmy nomination, and not even a Golden Globe nomination. Unfortunately, this film seems way too quirky to rectify that oversight, but maybe it will prompt the Academy to give him a lifetime achievement Oscar.
Literally, Right Before Aaron--A year and a half after breaking up with his girlfriend (Cobie Smulders), a young man (Justin Long) gets invited to her wedding, and wonders if there's any chance of maybe possibly winning her back.
O--This one looks like it could be cute. What it doesn't look like is a film destined to win any Oscars.
Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House--In the film with the year's most awkward title outside of that Madea movie, Liam Neeson plays Felt, the deputy director of the FBI in 1972, who, appalled at how the Nixon administration was attempting to interfere with the Watergate investigation, decides to place a phone call to a couple of reporters at the Washington Post.
OO--Neeson is almost as overdue for an Oscar nomination as Stanton is, having not been nominated since Schindler's List, and this seems like it would be a good vehicle for one. However, even if I had more confidence in director Peter Landesman (whose Concussion turned out to be failed awards bait), this film is probably going to get lost in the white-hot glare of the year's other Washington Post vs. the Nixon Administration movie, Spielberg's The Post.
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Post by MarkInTexas on Sept 9, 2017 17:16:21 GMT -5
Selected October Limited Releases
October 6
The Florida Project--A little girl (newcomer Brooklynn Prince) grows up with her perpetually unemployed mother (Bria Vinaite) at a garishly painted motel near Disney World. Willem Dafoe playes the motel's fatherly manager. Directed by Sean Baker, who made the iPhone-shot Tangerine.
OOO--No sophomore slump here, as reports out of Cannes indicated that this would end up as one of the best films of the year. Dafoe's change-of-pace role as a nice guy gives him a strong shot at a nomination.
October 13
Breathe--Andrew Garfield plays Robin Cavendish, an athletic young man living in Kenya, who is struck down by polio. Rather than give up and lie in a hospital for the rest of his life, he and his wife (Claire Foy) fight to get him back home and even mobile. The directional debut of Andy Serkis.
OO--This seems almost like it was concocted in a lab to earn Oscar nominations--period piece true story of a British disabled man who overcomes adversity and triumphs. Of course, there are times when the formula falls flat, and this has a strong chance of doing exactly that.
Goodbye Christopher Robin--Author A.A. Milne (Domhnall Gleeson) deciedes to write a book based on his young son's stuffed animals, and include his son as one of the characters. The family is unprepared when Winnie-the-Pooh becomes a sensation, and the real-life Christopher Robin is thrust into the spotlight. Margot Robie plays Daphne Milne.
OO--This one looks like it could be a heartwarming family story or an examination into the sudden cost of unwanted fame, or somewhere in between. Where it lands could determine its position in the awards race.
The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)--Director Noah Baumbach returns to his favorite subject--dysfunctional families--with Ben Stiller and Adam Sandler playing estranged brothers, Dustin Hoffman as their estranged dad, a famous writer, and Emma Thompson as their estranged mom.
OO--Beyond the fact that Baumbach tends to be ignored by the Academy (one career nomination, for writing The Squid and the Whale), and Sandler tends to cause revulsion (one nomination for his entire filmography--a makeup nom for Click), the biggest award hurdle for this film might be the fact that Netflix will begin streaming it the same day it hits theaters.
Professor Marston & The Wonder Women--Luke Evans, one of the stars of the year's highest-grossing film, plays William Marston, a psychologist whose unconventional releationship with his wife Elizabeth (Rebecca Hall) and their shared girlfriend Olive (Bella Heathcote) led him to create a new comic book character, one who eventually became the title character of the year's second highest-grossing film.
OO--This has been cannily tied to Wonder Woman, but its exploration of unconventional sexuality might be too unnerving to the more conservative Academy members.
October 20
BPM (Beats Per Minute)--In early 90s France, AIDS continues to ravage the gay community, and a group of radicals is determined to make sure that they are not forgotten. Winner of the second-place Grand Prix prize at this year's Cannes festival.
OO--If this film was in English, it would probably already be on most Best Picture shortlists. However, it's very difficult for a foreign film to get a major nomination. However, Amour was nominated for Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Actress just five years ago, so major awards for this one are not out of the question.
Wonderstruck--Not to be confused with Wonder, Wonder Woman, or Professor Marston & The Wonder Women, Todd Haynes directs this family-friendly film about a deaf girl (Millicent Simmonds) in 1920's New York and a young orphan boy (Oakes Fegley) 50 years later who have a mysterious connection. Julianne Moore and Michelle Williams co-star
OO--It's always a bad idea to count out Haynes, but word from Cannes suggested this was more of a crowd-pleaser than a serious awards contender.
October 27
The Killing of a Sacred Deer--Colin Farrell and Nicole Kidman play an upscale couple whose lives come under threat after their daughter (Raffey Cassidy) makes a new friend (Barry Keoghan). Directed by Yorgos Lantimos.
OO--Given how surreal his work generally is, Lantimos has been surprisingly embraced by the Academy, with a Foreign Language nomination for Dogtooth and a Screenplay nomination for The Lobster. That and good reviews out of Cannes suggest a possible Oscar breakthrough to other categories, but this is supposed to be pitch black--a tone that might not sit well with some voters.
Novitiate--In the early 60s, teenager Cathleen (Margaret Qualley) enters a convent run by stern mother superior (Melissa Leo) who fears what the reforms of Vatican II will do to her authority.
OO--Leo seems like the film's best bet for a nomination, but how much it is embraced probably depends on how much of a villain the film paints her character.
The Square--The surprise winner of the Palme D'Or at this year's Cannes Festival, this satirical drama is about a curator of a modern art museum (Claes Bang) whose life begins to spiral out of control upon the opening of a new exhibition. Elizabeth Moss co-stars as a reporter. Directed by Ruben Ostlund.
OO--Cannes winners have a tendency to fall flat with American critics, and it will remain to be seen if this can survive the curse.
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Post by Desert Dweller on Sept 9, 2017 23:59:20 GMT -5
October Wide ReleasesOnly the Brave--The true story of the Granite Mountain Hotshots, an elite firefighting team of the Prescott, Arizona fire department, whose battle against a wildfire in 2013 lead to multiple fatalities. Jeff Bridges, Josh Brolin, and Miles Teller are some of the members of the unit, and Jennifer Connelly and Andie MacDowell play firefighter wives. $--People tend to avoid movies about recent real-life tragedies, as the producers of last year's Deepwater Horizon and Patriot's Day could tell you. The Yarnell Hill disaster is mush less remembered, however, than the Boston marathon bombing and the oil rig explosion, which might work in its favor. OO--Dramas based on true stories are almost always made with award season in mind. This seems like obvious Oscar bait, but films like this run the risk of emphasizing the action over the story, damaging its chances. I'm from Prescott, AZ and this was big, big, BIG news in Arizona. I dread this film with every fiber of my being. There is utterly no way this film is going to tell the real story of what happened here. I know this because the real story is a tale of government failure. Which isn't really going to make a flashy Hollywood movie. It makes me sick to think that this story is going to be glorified in a movie. This SHOULD NEVER HAVE HAPPENED. The government fucked up royally. These people were NOT "elite" firefighters. They didn't have enough training. (And they weren't as old as Jeff Bridges and Josh Brolin, for God's sake.) The city was lying in order to get the extra funding. No one knew what the fuck they were doing. And 19 people died because EVERYONE was incompetent. It makes me ILL to think that the City of Prescott is going to be let off the hook for their scandalous, corrupt behavior. Complete bullshit to think there's going to be a big movie valorizing a bunch of young guys who were undertrained and overtired and sent to their deaths by incompetent government officials. Furthermore, the action these guys took was idiotic. I hope to God no one thinks they should emulate what these guys did. And this all happened because evil people thought protecting property was more important than protecting the lives of firefighters. . On the other hand, this one didn't have a very well known foreign adaptation of it that was released only a year before the English language version. And it is an adaptation of a HUGE bestselling mystery series by Jo Nesbo. Having read both books in question, I can say that this one might be a bit more accessible since it doesn't feature the main female character being raped on screen. |
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Post by Celebith on Sept 15, 2017 2:31:58 GMT -5
October Wide ReleasesOctober 6Blade Runner 2049--For the third time in the last ten years, Harrison Ford returns to a role he last played in the 80s, this time as former blade runner Rick Deckard, who, after deliberately disappearing after the events of the first film, is found by new blade runner Ryan Gosling, who is trying to uncover a conspiracy involving the very evil-seeming Jared Leto. Denis Villeneuve directs, since Ridley Scott (who is an executive producer) was too busy working on another sci-fi revival from roughly the same time period. $$--The original Blade Runner may be a sci-fi classic, but it's also a film that much of the target audience has never seen, which might make potential audience members reluctant to turn out. OO--Even with Villeneuve at the helm, a 30-years-later sci-fi sequel isn't something the Academy usually takes note of. Then again, I would have said much the same thing about Mad Max: Fury Road. Unless they can match Vangelis' score / soundtrack, and they take time to just soak in the atmosphere of the city, this is going to be, at best, mediocre, like the Ghost in the Shell reboot. I'm definitely waiting for the reviews and commentary before I see it. |
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Post by MarkInTexas on Sept 16, 2017 19:49:12 GMT -5
I'm bumping Lucky up to OO, because the death of Harry Dean Stanton, I think, makes a nomination for this film more likely. I still think it looks too quirky, but this is the very last chance the Academy will have to honor him, so a nomination, while still unlikely, is no longer out of the question.
Selected November Limited Releases
November 3
Last Flag Flying--When his son is killed in the Middle East, a Vietnam vet (Steve Carrell) recruits two of his old Army buddies (Bryan Cranston and Laurence Fishburne) to bring his body home from Washington D.C. Directed by Richard Linklater.
OOOO--Unless the film falls flat, it seems almost certain that at least one of the three leads will end up with a nomination, and Linklater and the film itself are also strong contenders.
LBJ--Vice President--and later President--Lyndon Johnson (Woody Harrelson) works to change the course of American history, particularity in the case of civil rights. Directed by Rob Reiner.
O--This looks to trod similar ground as last year's HBO Johnson biopic, All the Way. It's also sat on the shelf for a year and is directed by Reiner, who hasn't made a good movie since The American President.
The Man Who Invented Christmas--That would be Charles Dickens (Dan Stevens), who as a young writer cured a case of writers block by coming up with a holiday-set ghost story--make that the holiday-set ghost story. Christopher Plummer plays Scrooge, who Dickens converses with during the writing process.
O--The second Dickens biopic in four years, after The Invisible Woman, which cast Ralph Fiennes as a much older Dickens. As this appears to be more of a upscale holiday crowdpleaser than a serious awards movie, this will probably meet a similar awards fate.
Roman J. Israel, Esq.--Denzil Washington plays an eccentric, but brilliant attorney who finds himself morally conflicted after joining a high-powered firm Dan Gilroy directs.
OOO--Washington tends to make crowd-pleasers or award bait. This definitely falls into the latter category, and he has an excellent track record of getting nominated for those films.
November 10
Lady Bird--A strong-willed high school student (Saoirse Ronan) deals with her equally strong-willed mother (Laurie Metcalf) while starting a romance with a fellow student (Timothee Chalamet). The solo directorial debut of Greta Gerwig.
OOO--With two Oscar nominations before age 23, anything Ronan does should be taken seriously as a possible Oscar contender.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri--The decision of an angry, grieving mother (Frances McDormand) to erect the title billboards to accuse the local police chief (Woody Harrelson) of doing nothing to solve her daughter's murder sets off a chain reaction that threatens to consume the entire town. Directed by Martin McDonagh.
OOO--McDormand is a potent awards force, but its possible that this darkly comic film might be too dark for the Academy's sensibilities.
November 22
Darkest Hour--Gary Oldman joins the parade of distinguished actors who have played Winston Churchill, as this movie retells his ascension to the prime ministership and his preparing the nation for war against Hitler. Directed by Joe Wright.
OO--This is a tell often told, but Oldman is expected to be spectacular as Churchill.
November 24
The Current War--Thomas Edison (Benedict Cumberbatch) and George Westinghouse (Michael Shannon) battle to be the first to electrify the United States, though both face possible unexpected competition from Nikola Tesla (Nicholas Hoult).
OO--This one looks like it could be interesting, though I suspect it will be more of a factor in the technical races.
Call Me By Your Name--An American teenager living in Italy (Timothée Chalamet) finds himself falling for the graduate student (Armie Hammer) staying with his family over the summer.
OOOO--This caused a sensation at Sundance, and is expected to be one of this year's prime contenders in numerous categories.
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Post by The Thanksgiving Goblin. on Sept 27, 2017 17:18:38 GMT -5
this is the best trailer in years
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Post by MarkInTexas on Oct 7, 2017 15:45:49 GMT -5
Since I last updated this, some Toronto premieres have been added to the November schedule.
Selected November/December Limited Releases
November 17
I Love You, Daddy--When his teenage daughter (Chloe Grace Mortiz) seems to have become the new girlfriend of a celebrated director (John Malkovich) whose taste in women runs very young, a writer (Louis C.K., who also directed) has no idea what to do.
OO--This got mixed reviews out of Toronto, which probably means it won't be a significant Oscar player. Still, a good cast and a good release date might help push the needle.
Mudbound--After World War II, two soldiers, one black (Jason Mitchell) and one white (Garrett Hedlund) return to rural Mississippi, where they have to deal with both PTSD and the era's rampant racism that didn't even care if you had served your country or not.
OOO--One of the toasts of Sundance, this would be an Oscar shoo-in, except for the fact it was bought by Netflix and will be streaming on the same day it premieres in theaters. Like October's The Meyerowitz Stories, its Oscar chances depend on how much the Academy can tolerate that fact.
November 22
Chappaquiddick--After a campaign worker (Katie Mara) drowns in his car after he drives it off a bridge, Senator Ted Kennedy (Jason Clarke) engages his father (Bruce Dern), his lawyer (Jim Gaffigan), and his cousin (Ed Helms) to cover up exactly what happened that night.
OO--By all accounts, this is extremely brutal on liberal icon Ted Kennedy and his entire family, which might make liberal members of the Academy take pause. If the film finds favor among certain politicians and media figures, that could further hurt the film's award chances.
December 1
The Disaster Artist--Struggling, multimillionaire, heavily accented actor Tommy Wiseau (James Franco, who also directed) decides he wants to make his own movie in the worst way--and does exactly that. Dave Franco plays friend and co-star Greg Sestero, who wrote the book the film is based on, and an all-star cast, including Alison Brie, Zac Efron, Seth Rogan, Josh Hutcherson, and Tommy Wiseau himself play various people involved in the making of The Room.
OO--Hollywood loves movies about moviemaking, but there is a possibility that to truly appreciate this film, you have to have seen The Room, and it seems doubtful that many of the older Academy members will have done so.
Wonder Wheel--The fifth film of the year to have the word "wonder" in its title, Woody Allen's latest is this 50s-set drama about the sudden reappearance of the estranged daughter (Juno Temple) of a Coney Island ride operator (Jim Belushi--yes, that Jim Belushi), whose marriage to Kate Winslet begins to strain. Justin Timberlake plays a lifeguard who romances Temple, who is on the run from the mob.
OO--Every few years, Allen produces an award-worthy film, and Winslet is always a contender. That said, there has been precious little buzz about this film.
December 8
All the Money in the World--When his teenage grandson is kidnapped in Rome, billionaire J. Paul Getty (Kevin Spacey) shocks the world--and his daughter-in-law (Michelle Williams)--by refusing to pay any ransom. Mark Wahlberg plays Getty's security agent. Ridley Scott directs.
OOO--For such an Oscar-friendly film, there's been surprisingly little buzz. Still, it's hard to believe this will be a complete strikeout.
I, Tonya--Figure skater Tonya Harding (Margot Robbie) is under pressure to make the Olympic team in 1994, and her estranged husband Jeff (Sebastian Stan) has an idea how to take out competition Nancy Kerrigan, in this story of 1994's second-most-notorious crime involving a famous athlete. Allison Janney plays her mother.
OOO--A sensation at Toronto, with Janney thought to be a shoo-in for a Supporting Actress nomination (and an early front-runner for the actual award). Director Craig Gillespie recaptures some of the early promise shown in Lars and the Real Girl.
The Shape of Water--In Cold War-era America, a mute janitor (Sally Hawkins) and her friend (Octavia Spencer) rescue a bizarre water creature from captivity at the government agency they both work at. Needless to say, this doesn't sit well with the higher-ups, who unleash a ruthless investigator (Michael Shannon) to figure out what happened. Directed by Guillermo del Toro.
OOOO--This is attracting raves across the board, and Hawkins is thought to be an early Best Actress contender. This could get the most nominations for a del Toro film since Pan's Labyrinth.
December 22
Happy End--A dysfunctional family (including Isabelle Huppert) undergoes a series of crises. Directed by Michael Haneke, so you know not to take the title literally.
OO--This received mostly mixed reviews at Cannes, with many critics thinking it a step down from Haneke's last film, Amour. This one may be so chilly and bleak that awards remain elusive.
The Post--When the Washington Post acquires the Pentagon Papers, which reveals the extent that the White House has lied to both Congress and the public about Vietnam, editor Ben Bradlee (Tom Hanks) and publisher Kay Graham (Meryl Streep) fight the government for the right to print the incendiary report. Directed by Steven Spielberg.
OOOO--Sight unseen, this has to be considered one of the year's leading Oscar contenders. Assuming this doesn't turn out to be another Amistad, this one might be mostly held back by the fact that a movie about crusading newspaper reporters just won Best Picture two years ago.
December 25
Phantom Thread--Not much is known about the latest from Paul Thomas Anderson (including whether the title of the film will actually be Phantom Thread), but rumors are that it is a drama about a dressmaker (Daniel Day-Lewis, in his first film since Lincoln), who is hired to design clothing for the royal family, while juggling a love triangle.
OOOO--Day Lewis won an Oscar for his last role, won an Oscar for his last Paul Thomas Anderson film, and has announced his retirement. It still seems unlikely that he'll end up with a fourth Oscar, but unless the film turns out to be awful, he'll almost certainly be getting a nomination.
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